10201 Neptune Ct · Waco, TX 76708

$290,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $315k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Fargo floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas, where every square foot is put-to-use with sophistication and comfort. You'll be calling the approximately 1,665 square foot, single-story, 2-car garage, and covered patio your new home. The 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom floorplan is perfect for you with the open concept living area. The kitchen, dining area, and living area creates a spacious environment. You'll find flat panel birch cabinetry and granite countertops in the kitchen. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and corner pantry. The secondary bedrooms are cozy and carpeted, with plenty of closet space. The laundry room and a secondary bathroom are perfectly place ne

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $290,530

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home, Fargo plan; Active listing
• Construction: Living area approximately 1665; Built as a new construction (spec)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Fargo plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,208 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,685
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5500 Black Horse	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,640 (-2%)	10mo	$325,000	$198	71
10601 T Bury Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,683 (+1%)	7mo	$295,000	$175	68
10212 Neptune Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-15%)	1mo	$254,180	$180	67
5813 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-6%)	6mo	$301,065	$192	67
10616 Whitney Trce	0.40mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+8%)	4mo	$329,999	$184	61
5807 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+7%)	6mo	$322,090	$181	60
10517 Rayburn Way	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (+11%)	5mo	$349,900	$189	57
5501 Stillhouse Holw	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,765 (+6%)	8mo	$325,000	$184	56
5613 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-9%)	5mo	$300,735	$199	56
9428 Centennial Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-3%)	10mo	$275,000	$171	53
10421 T Bury Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,779 (+7%)	10mo	$365,000	$205	51
10309 T Bury Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,902 (+14%)	10mo	$390,000	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-61,097
• Equity at exit: $43,319

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-89,293
• Equity at exit: $25,120

Cash invested: $81,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,358/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,542

Max offer price $274,592

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,632
• Closing costs: $8,716
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	21d	1	0.06mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	13d	1	0.53mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	0.87mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,530 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,530 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,530 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,530 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,530 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,530 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,530 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,530 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $290,530 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,530 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,530 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,530 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,274
• − Property taxes: −$4,358
• − Insurance: −$1,453
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − Depreciation: −$8,452
• Taxable loss: −$6,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,518
• After-tax cash flow: $196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms is in excellent condition, featuring a spacious open concept floor plan, granite countertops, hardwood floors, and a well-maintained exterior. Smart home integration and energy-efficient updates would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and security
• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances ambiance and energy savings

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and security ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances ambiance and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B