10201 Neptune Ct · Waco, TX 76708

$290,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $174/sqft · 9% below area Est $320k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Fargo floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas, where every square foot is put-to-use with sophistication and comfort. You'll be calling the approximately 1,665 square foot, single-story, 2-car garage, and covered patio your new home. The 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom floorplan is perfect for you with the open concept living area. The kitchen, dining area, and living area creates a spacious environment. You'll find flat panel birch cabinetry and granite countertops in the kitchen. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and corner pantry. The secondary bedrooms are cozy and carpeted, with plenty of closet space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,465 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,191
• List price: $290,530
• Delta: -9.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10312 Neptune Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,612 (-3%)	2mo	$265,030	$164	88
10313 Neptune Ct	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	1mo	$298,465	$177	84
10225 Altair Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	3mo	$279,575	$165	84
10409 Neptune Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	2mo	$280,965	$166	81
10712 Peperak Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$175	68
5800 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+7%)	0mo	$325,820	$183	64
5308 Tama Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+3%)	2mo	$302,000	$176	63
11100 Beckon Fls	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (+0%)	2mo	$279,900	$168	62
11108 Beckon Fls	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-2%)	2mo	$279,900	$171	58
10405 Aquilla Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+10%)	2mo	$383,400	$210	58
9448 Centennial Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+11%)	0mo	$295,000	$160	51
9321 Tree Lake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (+13%)	0mo	$229,900	$122	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-62,397
• Equity at exit: $43,319

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-91,893
• Equity at exit: $25,120

Cash invested: $81,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 80 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $296,182 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,358/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,542

Max offer price $271,456

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-31	+0% $-132	+5% $-232	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-226	+0% $-132	+5% $-38	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-58	base $-132	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,632
• Closing costs: $8,716
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	116d	1	0.06mi
10221 Altair Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$2,250	$1.78	4d	1	0.08mi
10104 Bethlehem Ct Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,785	$1.68	3d	1	0.12mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	109d	1	0.53mi
11220 Haviture Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	5d	1	0.74mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	139d	1	0.87mi
10209 Lilac Ln Unit B Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	0d	1	0.92mi
10205 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,495	$1.06	0d	1	0.92mi
10201 Iris Ln Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,495	$1.06	0d	1	0.98mi
9917 Desperado Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,245	$1.08	0d	1	1.35mi
7101 Sulphur Ct China Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,400	$1.41	0d	1	1.46mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	109d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,530 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,530 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,530 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,530 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,530 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,530 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,530 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,530 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $290,530 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,530 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,530 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,530 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,274
• − Property taxes: −$4,358
• − Insurance: −$1,453
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$8,452
• Taxable loss: −$6,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,584
• After-tax cash flow: $2/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms is in excellent condition, featuring a spacious open concept floor plan, granite countertops, hardwood floors, and a well-maintained exterior. Smart home integration and energy-efficient updates would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and security ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Smart lighting — Enhances ambiance and energy savings ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary China Spring El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle China Spring Middle B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High China Spring H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B