302 N Horace Ave · Rockford, IL 61101

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 1920 6,970 sqft lot $82/sqft · 7% below area Est $91k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home with 1,042 sq ft. Features a large fenced yard. Great investment opportunity with plenty of potential.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcintosh Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 333 students, 0% FRL); Thurgood Marshall School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #1 of 665 statewide, top 0%, 482 students, 0% FRL); Auburn High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,936 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 14% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Rockford SD 205 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $85k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.31%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,470
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -7.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 S Pierpont Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-2%)	8mo	$132,000	$129	67
2114 W Jefferson St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (+5%)	2mo	$80,000	$73	66
320 Howard Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+3%)	6mo	$90,000	$84	65
521 N Johnston Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-6%)	8mo	$58,000	$59	65
2222 Mulberry St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+10%)	6mo	$119,000	$104	62
422 Miriam Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,097 (+5%)	10mo	$137,000	$125	60
802 Waveland Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+3%)	3mo	$74,900	$70	59
410 Foster Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	974 (-6%)	8mo	$127,500	$131	57
2315 Chestnut St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	932 (-11%)	7mo	$125,000	$134	54
610 N Horace Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-14%)	7mo	$116,900	$130	54
311 N Johnston Ave	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,194 (+15%)	9mo	$90,000	$75	52
325 Webster Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-9%)	9mo	$58,500	$62	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $18,232
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $57,168
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61101

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,430/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $526	+0% $502	+5% $478	+10% $454
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $447	+0% $502	+5% $557	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $545	-0.5pp $524	base $502	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3016 School St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1090	$1,400	$1.28	46d	1	0.19mi
2403 Elm St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1373	$1,400	$1.02	46d	1	0.34mi
2403 Elm St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1373	$1,400	$1.02	15d	1	0.34mi
2305 School St Unit 2305-7 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	46d	1	0.36mi
2222 Andrews St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	0.36mi
2315 Green St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,600	$1.24	46d	1	0.45mi
901 N Horace Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	15d	1	0.46mi
2011 School St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	46d	1	0.53mi
504 Lexington Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.61mi
1826 Green St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.70mi
207 N Central Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1296	$1,500	$1.16	15d	1	0.73mi
924 N Sunset Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	725	$1,050	$1.45	15d	1	0.76mi
1510 School St Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,200	$0.86	46d	1	0.82mi
615 Newport Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.89mi
3834 Preston St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	15d	1	0.89mi
418 Orchard Park Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,500	$1.22	15d	1	0.90mi
912 Furman St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	15d	1	1.03mi
1116 Irving Ave Unit 1116-301 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	23d	1	1.03mi
1146 Fairview Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1344	$1,250	$0.93	23d	1	1.14mi
1413 La Belle Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	46d	1	1.19mi
1617 Vermont St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1375	$1,325	$0.96	46d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $85,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-04-27
    price $85,000 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home with 1,042 sq ft. Features a large fenced yard. Great investment opportunity with plenty of potential.

12. 2026-04-10
    listed $89,000 Active 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home with 1,042 sq ft. Features a large fenced yard. Great investment opportunity with plenty of potential.

13. 2025-01-29
    soldstatus $40,000
14. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus $29,000
15. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,430 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,430
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $4,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,318
• Household income: $46,163
• Rent vs Own: 48.6% rent · 51.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1170.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.58%
• Current HPI: 204.8946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+193.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $85,000 NWIAR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $89,000 NWIAR
• 2025-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,430 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.