866 Carnival Road Se Rd SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$348,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2023 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 2023 New Construction! READY NOW! This home has city water & is convenient to shopping, schools, restaurants & parks. This home has an open floor with a view from the front of the home, through the great room, to the dining room, kitchen & to the covered Lanai. The spacious living room feature a beautiful accent wall bring more sophistication to the house. The kitchen has a center island with beautiful quartz counters & soft close cabinets to provide a casual eating area. You'll love the luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the house with Moen plumbing fixtures & LED lighting to offer the luxury you are looking for in a new home. The owner's suite is spacious, with two large closets, a large shower & double vanity with quartz counters and soft close cabinetry. Complete updated bathrooms Full appliance package included. Did i mentioned hurricane shutters and complete fenced back yard? Too many features to mention.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Covered lanai
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR
• COVERED LANAI
• CENTER ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount available

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces southeast
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Dining room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John F. Turner Senior Elementary School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 543 students, 69% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Heritage High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,007 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,332 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.52%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $152,218
• Equity at exit: $313,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $482,127
• Equity at exit: $676,087

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1123
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,046

Max offer price $240,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-414	-5% $-512	+0% $-611	+5% $-709	+10% $-808
Rent	-10% $-790	-5% $-700	+0% $-611	+5% $-521	+10% $-431
Rate	-1.0pp $-435	-0.5pp $-522	base $-611	+0.5pp $-701	+1.0pp $-793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
431 Brantley St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,050	$1.55	20d	1	0.17mi
857 Buchanan Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,950	$1.55	25d	1	0.38mi
743 Andrew St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,895	$1.51	25d	1	0.49mi
914 Caligula Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,841	$1.34	15d	1	0.51mi
710 Avalon St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,995	$1.45	25d	1	0.54mi
1129 Colonial Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2008	$2,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.59mi
647 Airoso Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2365	$2,900	$1.23	15d	1	0.59mi
309 Cactus St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,195	$1.19	16d	1	0.60mi
171 Okeefe St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,855	$1.44	16d	1	0.77mi
1224 Buffing Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2233	$2,395	$1.07	16d	1	0.86mi
490 Hatcher St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	23d	1	0.89mi
907 Algardi St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,330	$1.20	25d	1	0.92mi
1290 Sail Ct SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,945	$1.29	25d	1	0.97mi
320 Algiers Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,825	$1.40	25d	1	1.00mi
272 Aquarius Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	25d	1	1.03mi
726 Scotten Ave SW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,970	$1.37	15d	1	1.10mi
822 Seven Gables Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,835	$1.24	25d	1	1.17mi
818 Seven Gables Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,795	$1.20	25d	1	1.18mi
896 Talmadge Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,900	$1.50	16d	1	1.36mi
1205 Jaslo St SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,245	$2.26	16d	8	1.38mi
885 Talmadge Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	23d	1	1.39mi
721 Taluga Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,800	$1.16	25d	1	1.45mi
2910 Emerson Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	16d	1	1.46mi
356 Garbelmann St SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,121	$1.15	15d	1	1.48mi
1255 Wadsworth St SE Unit 1255 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,350	$1.35	20d	1	1.49mi
497 Schenley St SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $348,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $348,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $348,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $348,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $348,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $348,000
17. 2026-03-17
    historical
18. 2026-01-22
    listed $354,000 Active
19. 2025-12-10
    historical 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (990 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 2023 New Construction! READY NOW! This home has city water & is convenient to shopping, schools, restaurants & parks. This home has an open floor with a view from the front of the home, through the great room, to the dining room, kitchen & to the covered Lanai. The spacious living room feature a beautiful accent wall bring more sophistication to the house. The kitchen has a center island with beautiful quartz counters & soft close cabinets to provide a casual eating area. You'll love the luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the house with Moen plumbing fixtures & LED lighting to offer the luxury you are looking for in a new home. The owner's suite is spacious, with two large closets, a large shower & double vanity with quartz counters and soft close cabinetry. Complete updated bathrooms Full appliance package included. Did i mentioned hurricane shutters and complete fenced back yard? Too many features to mention.

20. 2025-08-06
    price $354,000
21. 2025-07-18
    historical
22. 2025-06-22
    historical
23. 2025-04-09
    listed $375,000 Active
24. 2025-04-08
    listed $375,000 Active
25. 2025-03-01
    listed $375,000 Active
26. 2025-02-25
    listed $354,000 Active 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (990 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 2023 New Construction! READY NOW! This home has city water & is convenient to shopping, schools, restaurants & parks. This home has an open floor with a view from the front of the home, through the great room, to the dining room, kitchen & to the covered Lanai. The spacious living room feature a beautiful accent wall bring more sophistication to the house. The kitchen has a center island with beautiful quartz counters & soft close cabinets to provide a casual eating area. You'll love the luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the house with Moen plumbing fixtures & LED lighting to offer the luxury you are looking for in a new home. The owner's suite is spacious, with two large closets, a large shower & double vanity with quartz counters and soft close cabinetry. Complete updated bathrooms Full appliance package included. Did i mentioned hurricane shutters and complete fenced back yard? Too many features to mention.

27. 2025-02-24
    historical $375,000
28. 2023-11-01
    soldstatus $349,900 Closed
29. 2023-10-06
    status Pending
30. 2023-09-29
    listed $349,900 Active
31. 2008-06-06
    soldstatus $6,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,239 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,239 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 2 d/yr ≥106°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$13,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5094.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $348,000 SCMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $354,000 SCMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $354,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $375,000 MARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-01 Listed $375,000 SCMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $354,000 SCMLS
• 2025-02-24 Coming Soon $375,000 SCMLS
• 2023-11-01 Sold (MLS) $349,900 SCMLS
• 2023-10-06 Pending — SCMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $349,900 SCMLS
• 2008-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $6,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,239 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.