4023 Windy Whisper Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

$303,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $286k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $303,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home; Address: 4023 Windy Whisper Dr, Brookshire TX 77423
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,785 (living space figure provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built LEXINGTON plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-845/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,931 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32806 Laureate Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	1mo	$289,900	$162	98
32818 Laureate Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	1mo	$274,900	$154	97
4011 Crowning Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	1mo	$284,900	$160	97
32863 Laureate Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	3mo	$284,900	$160	91
4014 Ancient Honor Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,785 (0%)	6mo	$299,900	$168	83
32814 Laureate Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	1mo	$299,900	$150	77
4007 Crowning Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	3mo	$321,900	$161	75
4014 Crowning Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	3mo	$307,900	$154	73
32851 Laureate Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	3mo	$309,900	$155	72
32859 Laureate Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	3mo	$299,900	$150	71
4006 Ancient Honor Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	6mo	$309,900	$155	69
4018 Ancient Honor Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	6mo	$319,900	$160	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-61,221
• Equity at exit: $45,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,028
• Equity at exit: $26,276

Cash invested: $85,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,558/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,658

Max offer price $293,709

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $35	+0% $-70	+5% $-175	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-172	+0% $-70	+5% $31	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $7	base $-70	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,975
• Closing costs: $9,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	13d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $303,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $303,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $303,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $303,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $303,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $303,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $303,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 472-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $303,900 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,023
• − Property taxes: −$4,558
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − Depreciation: −$8,841
• Taxable loss: −$6,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B