93 N Sky Run Ln #21 · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$79,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2004 Good condition Est $122k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your own mountain escape in the desirable Sky Run Resort community in Star Valley (55+ community)! This charming 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, relaxation, and breathtaking scenery. Step out onto the spacious Trex deck and take in the incredible mountain views while enjoying Payson's cool mountain air and peaceful surroundings. Whether you're sipping your morning coffee or unwinding after a long day, this outdoor space is designed for relaxing and soaking in the beauty of Rim Country. Inside, the home features vaulted ceilings, natural light, and a cozy, low-maintenance layout that makes it ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or seaso

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2004
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Sewer available; Electricity available; Phone available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential park model with additions; Built by Cavco
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Has a view; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Concrete; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; Electric heating; Cooling provided by heat pump
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Master suite on the main floor; Double-pane windows; Skylights

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.75%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 N Sky Run Ln #23	0.01mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	12mo	$122,000	$203	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $16,271
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $51,656
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $79,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,999 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,999 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,999 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,999 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,999 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $84,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $4,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 1-bedroom home in the Sky Run Resort community offers a good condition with a good rehab level, minimal repairs needed, and potential for value-adding updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Rental ceiling fans — improves air circulation and comfort
• Resale paint — fresh paint can make a home more appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Rental ceiling fans — improves air circulation and comfort ↑
• Resale paint — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $84,999 CAAR