93 N Sky Run Ln #21 · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$49,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 2004 Good condition $82/sqft · 46% below area Est $92k · 46% under ↓ 26% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your own mountain escape in the desirable Sky Run Resort community in Star Valley (55+ community)! This charming 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, relaxation, and breathtaking scenery. Step out onto the spacious Trex deck and take in the incredible mountain views while enjoying Payson's cool mountain air and peaceful surroundings. Whether you're sipping your morning coffee or unwinding after a long day, this outdoor space is designed for relaxing and soaking in the beauty of Rim Country. Inside, the home features vaulted ceilings, natural light, and a cozy, low-maintenance layout that makes it ideal as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or seasonal retreat. Located in the heart of Arizona's mountain country, Sky Run Resort offers easy access to hiking, fishing, off-roading, and all the outdoor recreation Payson is known for. Enjoy being just minutes from town while still feeling tucked away in the pines with stunning hillside views all around you.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2004
• Listed 176 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.1% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Payson Elementary School (432 students, 60% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1031 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.63%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,691
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: -46.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 N Sky Run Ln #23	0.01mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	17mo	$122,000	$203	85
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 121B	0.91mi	1/1.0	596 (-1%)	6mo	$149,000	$250	59
3933 E Hwy Az-260 #116	0.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	596 (-1%)	8mo	$64,000	$107	54
3933 Lamplighter Rv #125	0.65mi	1/1.0	660 (+10%)	6mo	$111,000	$168	48
3616 E AZ Highway 260 Dr Unit 123A	0.89mi	1/1.0	616 (+3%)	25mo	$91,000	$148	41
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 123A	0.91mi	1/1.0	616 (+3%)	25mo	$91,000	$148	41
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 142A	0.94mi	1/1.0	468 (-22%)	2mo	$97,375	$208	38
190 N Cornerstone Way #42	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+20%)	18mo	$105,000	$146	38
3933 E Hwy 260 -- #211	0.65mi	1/1.0	660 (+10%)	20mo	$82,900	$126	36
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #11	1.04mi	1/1.0	456 (-24%)	10mo	$61,400	$135	31
3680 W State Hwy 260 Hwy Unit C29	0.80mi	1/1.0	685 (+14%)	20mo	$54,500	$80	25
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 114B	0.91mi	2/2.0 (+1)	720 (+20%)	18mo	$115,000	$160	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $33,653
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $83,020
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $81,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 398 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +10.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 1031
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $671	+0% $654	+5% $637	+10% $620
Rent	-10% $554	-5% $604	+0% $654	+5% $704	+10% $754
Rate	-1.0pp $679	-0.5pp $667	base $654	+0.5pp $641	+1.0pp $628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available from Highway 87 to Sky Run Lane
• HOA & community: Trash included in association feeLand lease of $600 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space1 carport space
• Utilities: Sewer connected and available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housingLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood sidingWood framePainted exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yardGravel/stone back yardViews of trees/woodsMountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorBuilt-in microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingHeat pump coolingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Full bath in master bedroomFireplace (other)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unitCommunity laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $49,500 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $49,500 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $49,500 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $49,500 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $49,500 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $49,500 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $49,500 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $49,500 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $49,500 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $49,500 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $49,500 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $49,500 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $49,500 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $49,500 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $49,500 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $49,500 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    pricedays on market $49,500 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $62,500 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $62,500 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $62,500 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $62,500 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $62,500 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $62,500 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $62,500 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $62,500 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $62,500 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on marketlisting id $62,500 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $62,500 Active 8 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $62,500 Active 7 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $62,500 Active 6 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $62,500 Active 5 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $62,500 Active 4 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $62,500 Active 3 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $62,500 Active 2 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on marketlisting id $62,500 Active 1 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $62,500 Active 140 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $62,500 Active 139 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $62,500 Active 138 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $62,500 Active 137 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $62,500 Active 136 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $62,500 Active 135 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $62,500 Active 134 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $62,500 Active 133 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $62,500 Active 132 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $62,500 Active 131 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $62,500 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $62,500 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $62,500 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $7,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,802
• After-tax cash flow: $6,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,000–$9,000 screening

This charming 1-bedroom home in the Sky Run Resort community offers a good condition with a good rehab level, minimal repairs needed, and potential for value-adding updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Rental ceiling fans — improves air circulation and comfort ↑
• Resale paint — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Payson Elementary School Middle Rim Country Middle School F AZ #100/218 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Payson High School F AZ #141/381 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

F Composite livability gradescore 44/100

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 50,229 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available from Highway 87 to Sky Run Lane
• HOA & community: Trash included in association feeLand lease of $600 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space1 carport space
• Utilities: Sewer connected and available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housingLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood sidingWood framePainted exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yardGravel/stone back yardViews of trees/woodsMountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorBuilt-in microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingHeat pump coolingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Full bath in master bedroomFireplace (other)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unitCommunity laundry

Price history

-26.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-04 Listed $62,500 ARMLS
• 2026-08-31 Price Changed $62,500 CAAR
• 2026-08-26 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-06-19 Contingent — CAAR
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $79,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — CAAR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $84,999 CAAR