8434 Walerga Rd #1031 · Antelope, CA 95843

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · Condo public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2007 $340/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Bridgefield 3 bedroom unit with 2 covered parking spaces. Building 10 is back away from the street and close to the pool and clubhouse. Grounds are beautiful with walking paths throughout the grounds.

Key facts

• Close to the pool
• Close to clubhouse
• Walking paths

Tags

• COVERED PARKING SPACES
• CLOSE TO THE POOL
• CLOSE TO CLUBHOUSE
• WALKING PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include playground, pool, clubhouse, and exercise room; HOA fees cover trash and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Paved, level driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; 220 volt electrical service; Public sewer; Water provided by a water district; Irrigation connected
• Home design: Residential condominium, attached low-rise (1–3 stories); One-level interior layout; Originally finished (original condition); Built in 2007
• Construction: Composition roof; Year built 2007
• Exterior features: Fenced; Close to clubhouse; Located in a gated community; Built-in private pool with gunite construction (community facility access as well)

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Hood over range; Ice maker and plumbed for ice maker; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with granite and tub/shower over; Other bathroom(s) with granite and tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining and living room combined; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry closet with stacked washer/dryer included; Stacked laundry configuration

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Antelope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#362 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Roseville Joint Union High (urban): math 42% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #86 of 517 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $300k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $260,764 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,607
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-94,102
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95843

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,666/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$340
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $279,322

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8434 Walerga Rd #1014 Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,700	$2.08	2d	1	0.04mi
8434 Walerga Rd Antelope, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1147	$2,700	$2.35	14d	3	0.07mi
8434 Walerga Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	994	$2,100	$2.11	1d	1	0.08mi
4150 Munich Ct Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,595	$2.11	43d	1	0.23mi
8303 Walerga Rd Antelope, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$3,351	$3.75	1d	8	0.24mi
315 Vandenberg Cir Roseville, CA	3.0	2.0	1027	$2,199	$2.14	23d	1	0.39mi
313 Vandenberg Cir Roseville, CA	4.0	2.0	1310	$2,388	$1.82	43d	1	0.39mi
313 Vandenberg Cir Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	749	$1,899	$2.54	23d	1	0.39mi
8337 Scrub Oak Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,450	$1.77	23d	1	0.45mi
200 Doolittle Dr Roseville, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	14d	1	0.47mi
4400 Shandwick Dr Antelope, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,514	$2.87	1d	12	0.49mi
8449 Bramble Bush Cir Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,695	$1.95	43d	1	0.50mi
8020 Walerga Rd Antelope, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1014	$2,800	$2.76	7d	2	0.56mi
8020 Walerga Rd Antelope, CA	2.0	2.0	863	$2,438	$2.82	1d	2	0.56mi
8020 Walerga Rd #1276 Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1193	$2,800	$2.35	14d	1	0.60mi
3704 Pinehill Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,725	$1.89	12d	1	0.86mi
3600 Elverta Rd Antelope, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,945	$2.29	1d	7	0.98mi
3952 Running Bear Way Antelope, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	43d	1	1.08mi
4400 Antelope Rd Antelope, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,150	$2.37	2d	1	1.35mi
4400 Antelope Rd Antelope, CA	2.0	2.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	43d	1	1.35mi
3825 Little Rock Dr Antelope, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	848	$2,500	$2.95	1d	5	1.36mi
3320 Saxonville Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,500	$2.02	7d	1	1.38mi
4196 Worthington Dr North Highlands, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	7d	1	1.40mi
3237 Lowther Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.5	1392	$2,595	$1.86	4d	1	1.42mi
4249 Worthington Dr North Highlands, CA	4.0	2.0	1364	$2,500	$1.83	43d	1	1.44mi
7740 Watt Ave Antelope, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	646	$1,872	$2.90	2d	10	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $340 · $4,080/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $300,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-03-27
   historical $1,825
7. 2026-03-12
   listed $1,825
8. 2009-06-03
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,666
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,503
• − Management: −$2,503
• − HOA: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,558
• After-tax cash flow: $154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roseville Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0633630
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $81,930
• Composite: 51.11/100
• National rank: #1763
• State rank: #86 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antelope

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #12369

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antelope, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 47,695
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,695
• Household income: $98,274
• Rent vs Own: 30.5% rent · 69.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1074.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 14% Asian 12% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 8% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 13% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.76%
• Current HPI: 297.0341
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.78%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-98.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Rental Removed $1,825 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-12 Listed for Rent $1,825 APPFOLIO
• 2009-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,666 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.