53 Leetown Rd · Lancaster, VA 22503

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $133k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Great room
• Peaceful setting
• Built 2003

Tags

• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• APPROXIMATELY 2.06 ACRES
• GREAT ROOM
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#489 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lancaster Primary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 316 students, 127% FRL); Lancaster High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 403 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 114% FRL vs 64% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,864
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4187 River Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0	660 (-14%)	19mo	$114,000	$173	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,319
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $26,722
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22503

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $650/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $114,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-04-25
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

14. 2026-04-25
    status Pending 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

15. 2026-04-25
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-03-05
    listed $114,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-05
    listed $114,900 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $114,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Looking for peaceful country living? Welcome to Lancaster County, VA! This charming ranch-style home sits on approximately 2.06 acres, offering space, privacy, and the quiet setting many buyers are searching for. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a comfortable great room, providing a simple layout ready for your personal touches. A detached storage shed offers additional space for tools or outdoor equipment. Property is being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs or inspections. Priced with potential in mind and ideal for buyers considering a 203(k) renovation loan to update and make it their own. Don’t miss this opportunity to create your country retreat — schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $650 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $942 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$650
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $1,988
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $3,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,210
• Composite: 32.58/100
• National rank: #5680
• State rank: #125 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #21544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,046

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,870 people
• By 2030: 9,172 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 7,719 · -21.8%
• By 2050: 6,551 · -33.6%
• By 2075: 5,110 · -48.2%
• By 2100: 3,884 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 35% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.0) · D 46.1% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.9pp · 2024: -7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.0 2020: R+4.6 2016: R+10.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.39%
• Current HPI: 271.6442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-04-25 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $114,900 WMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $114,900 CBRAR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $114,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $650 · +44.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.