27483 Pauline Dr · Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? Affordable Florida Living & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; $113/Month HOA | 55+ Waterfront Community ?? Welcome to your slice of paradise! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2 full bathroom home is located in a highly desirable 55+ community where the scenic Imperial River runs directly through the park & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; offering fishing, kayaking, and peaceful waterfront views right outside your neighborhood. Enjoy true Florida living with: ?? Covered carport ?? Spacious screened-in lanai ?? Large outdoor deck & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; perfect for entertaining ?? Built-in workshop/storage area ?? Many upgrades throughout the home The commun

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Screened-in lanai
• Waterfront community

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• SCENIC IMPERIAL RIVER
• COVERED CARPORT
• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• LARGE OUTDOOR DECK
• BUILT-IN WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.38%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,096
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-28,451
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34135

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 835
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,619/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,893

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11355 Ridge Rd Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	704	$2,250	$3.20	21d	1	0.36mi
27599 Lime St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	24d	1	0.36mi
28000 Crest Preserve Cir Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$2,519	$2.81	3d	23	0.43mi
11350 Pendleton St #352 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,800	$1.76	24d	1	0.49mi
11931 Palm Bay Ct Unit 202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,885	$2.01	10d	1	0.58mi
11931 Palm Bay Ct Unit 102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,800	$1.91	24d	1	0.58mi
11931 Palm Bay Ct Unit 202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,700	$1.81	3d	1	0.58mi
27107 Matheson Ave Unit 4-108 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$3,995	$4.10	24d	1	0.67mi
27103 Matheson Ave #206 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	770	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.68mi
27103 Matheson Ave #206 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	713	$1,700	$2.38	14d	1	0.68mi
27123 Matheson Ave Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,300	$1.34	3d	1	0.68mi
27123 Matheson Ave #106 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	713	$1,600	$2.24	24d	1	0.69mi
27109 Matheson Ave Unit 206 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	770	$1,700	$2.21	3d	1	0.69mi
27095 Matheson Ave #206 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,500	$2.10	24d	1	0.72mi
27083 Matheson Ave #208 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,750	$1.80	24d	1	0.77mi
27302 Dortch Ave #304 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$2,550	$3.19	3d	1	0.87mi
10897 Goodwin St #899 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,950	$2.53	24d	1	0.88mi
28100 Pine Haven Way #6 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,895	$2.14	24d	1	0.95mi
28100 Pine Haven Way #5 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,800	$2.04	24d	1	0.95mi
26729 Little John Ct #23 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	983	$3,000	$3.05	24d	1	0.95mi
28160 Pine Haven Way Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,900	$2.15	10d	1	0.96mi
10725 Wilson St #11 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	12.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	24d	1	0.96mi
26705 Little John Ct #54 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	983	$4,000	$4.07	24d	1	0.98mi
27249 Pullen Ave #4 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	956	$3,200	$3.35	24d	1	0.98mi
27249 Pullen Ave #5 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$1,950	$2.04	24d	1	0.98mi
28121 Pine Haven Way #110 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$2,100	$2.38	24d	1	0.98mi
28121 Pine Haven Way #109 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,795	$1.73	24d	1	0.98mi
26680 Little John Ct #82 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	983	$1,650	$1.68	24d	1	1.00mi
26687 Little John Ct #80 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	983	$1,700	$1.73	3d	1	1.01mi
28161 Pine Haven Way #131 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$2,050	$2.32	24d	1	1.02mi
28260 Pine Haven Way #84 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,950	$1.89	19d	1	1.03mi
28260 Pine Haven Way #81 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	12d	1	1.03mi
26658 Little John Ct #94 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	983	$1,680	$1.71	24d	1	1.04mi
28201 Pine Haven Way #145 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,800	$1.75	16d	1	1.04mi
28280 Pine Haven Way #93 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$3,200	$3.11	24d	1	1.05mi
28280 Pine Haven Way #91 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$3,000	$3.29	24d	1	1.05mi
28231 Pine Haven Way #163 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$1,850	$2.03	21d	1	1.07mi
28231 Pine Haven Way #163 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$1,850	$2.03	19d	1	1.07mi
28261 Pine Haven Way Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,795	$1.68	24d	1	1.08mi
27250 Shriver Ave Unit 1073504P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	661	$4,275	$6.46	3d	2	1.08mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,619
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,252
• Household income: $91,380
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 976.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.86%
• Current HPI: 243.4153
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $165,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,619 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.