2208 Cedar St · Ashland, KY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $839 – $1,559
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 2.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.7/10.0
- Schools +3.2/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$82,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a practical layout with a comfortable living room and an eat in kitchen. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed and a level yard for easy maintenance. Located in a convenient area close to local amenities, this property provides everyday comfort with quick access to shopping, dining, and community services.
Key facts
- Covered front porch
- Level yard
- Storage shed
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
- Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 5.4% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 64/100 on livability (#304 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Ashland Independent (urban): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #49 of 165 in KY (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $69k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.47% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.89%
- Cash-on-cash
- 23.55%
- DSCR
- 2.05
- GRM
- 5.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $63,556
- List price
- $82,000
- Delta
- 29.02%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2314 Margarette St | 0.44mi | 2/1.0 | 858 (+9%) | 4mo | $74,500 | $87 | 61 |
| 2410 Boone Street St | 0.54mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 756 (-4%) | 6mo | $32,000 | $42 | 58 |
| 1336 High St | 0.69mi | 2/1.0 | 850 (+8%) | 1mo | $69,900 | $82 | 53 |
| 2416 Boone St | 0.54mi | 2/1.0 | 700 (-11%) | 10mo | $68,000 | $97 | 48 |
| 617 Long Street St | 0.43mi | 2/1.0 | 888 (+13%) | 12mo | $18,000 | $20 | 48 |
| 2715 County Rd. Rd | 0.57mi | 2/1.0 | 840 (+7%) | 16mo | $82,500 | $98 | 48 |
| 1336 High St St W | 0.69mi | 2/1.0 | 850 (+8%) | 24mo | $38,600 | $45 | 34 |
| 505 Ellington Ct | 0.66mi | 2/1.0 | 672 (-14%) | 18mo | $90,000 | $134 | 30 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 16.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.67×
- Total profit
- $15,390
- Equity at exit
- $12,226
- IRR
- 25.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.19×
- Total profit
- $50,266
- Equity at exit
- $7,090
Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Kentucky
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 41101
- Active inventory
- 100
- Price-to-rent
- 5.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,205 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$430
- Tax from tax record
- −$37 /mo · $446/yr
- Insurance
- −$34
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$253
- Net cashflow
- $451
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $20,500
- Closing costs
- $2,460
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 Providence Hill Dr Ashland, KY | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1100 | $1,205 | $1.10 | 2d | 1 | 0.86mi |
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $82,000 Active 67 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $82,000 Active 66 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $82,000 Active 65 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $82,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $82,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $82,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $82,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $82,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $82,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $82,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $82,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $82,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $82,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $82,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $82,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-04-12$84,000 Active 390-char remark
Show marketing remark (390 chars)
This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a practical layout with a comfortable living room and an eat in kitchen. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed and a level yard for easy maintenance. Located in a convenient area close to local amenities, this property provides everyday comfort with quick access to shopping, dining, and community services.
-
2026-04-12$84,000 Active 390-char remark
Show marketing remark (390 chars)
This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a practical layout with a comfortable living room and an eat in kitchen. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered front and back porches, along with a storage shed and a level yard for easy maintenance. Located in a convenient area close to local amenities, this property provides everyday comfort with quick access to shopping, dining, and community services.
-
2024-04-18soldstatus $69,000
-
2024-04-15soldstatus $69,000
-
2024-02-17$69,000
-
2001-10-31soldstatus $20,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $446 · $37/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $705 · $59/mo
- Expected delta
- +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 58.1%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $14,460
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,593
- − Property taxes
- −$446
- − Insurance
- −$410
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,157
- − Management
- −$1,157
- − Depreciation
- −$2,385
- Taxable income
- $4,312
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,035
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,372/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Ashland Independent
- NCES district ID
- 2100150
- Math proficiency
- 32% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 44% ▼ -15.00%
- Median HH income
- $36,579
- Composite
- 31.51/100
- National rank
- #5971
- State rank
- #49 of 165 in KY
Livability — Ashland
- Score
- 64/100
- State rank
- #304
- US rank
- #14462
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Ashland, KY
- City population
- 19,331
- Population (ZIP)
- 19,331
Population outlook (Boyd County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 46,137 people
- By 2030
- 44,585 · -3.4%
- By 2040
- 41,442 · -10.2%
- By 2050
- 38,313 · -17.0%
- By 2075
- 31,077 · -32.6%
- By 2100
- 23,432 · -49.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (89%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
- Common ancestry
- Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Boyd
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+38.5) · D 30.0% · R 68.6% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -38.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+12.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -81.83%
- Current HPI
- 148.0076
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.81%
- F500 in state
- 4
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 1 | $118B |
|
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| Food / Beverage | 1 | $7B |
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Price history
+320.0% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-12 Listed $84,000 AABOR
- 2026-04-12 Listed $84,000 ImagineMLS
- 2024-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
- 2024-04-15 Sold (MLS) $69,000 AABOR
- 2024-02-17 Listed $69,000 AABOR
- 2001-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+10.5%/yrLatest (2025): $446 · +135.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…