8039 SE Monterey Ave #38 · Milwaukie, OR 97222

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Other · 132 Days on market

Built 1975 ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy and affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home located in a friendly, well-kept community. Features an open living area, kitchen, and plenty of natural light. Perfect for first-time buyers or those seeking simple living. Low maintenance and great value!

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 2.9% in Milwaukie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in OR, #108 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.82%
• DSCR: 4.73
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $48,461
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.50×
• Total profit: $102,882
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97222

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $141/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $366

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $986	-5% $972	+0% $958	+5% $944	+10% $931
Rent	-10% $834	-5% $896	+0% $958	+5% $1,021	+10% $1,083
Rate	-1.0pp $983	-0.5pp $971	base $958	+0.5pp $946	+1.0pp $933

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8640 SE Causey Ave Happy Valley, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,648	$1.78	3d	12	0.33mi
8800 SE Causey Loop Happy Valley, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	680	$1,866	$2.74	3d	22	0.45mi
11408 SE 90th Ave Unit 1320 Happy Valley, OR	1.0	1.0	532	$1,200	$2.26	24d	1	0.52mi
9009 SE Causey Ave Happy Valley, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,535	$1.78	44d	1	0.53mi
7911 SE King Rd Apt 22 Milwaukie, OR	1.0	1.0	540	$1,250	$2.31	24d	1	0.57mi
7911 SE King Rd Unit 10 Milwaukie, OR	1.0	1.0	540	$1,300	$2.41	18d	1	0.59mi
7911 SE King Rd Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	540	$1,350	$2.50	18d	1	0.66mi
7911 SE King Rd Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	540	$1,300	$2.41	24d	1	0.66mi
10411 SE Cook Ct Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	699	$1,530	$2.19	45d	1	0.78mi
10411 SE Cook Ct Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	699	$1,540	$2.20	24d	1	0.78mi
11299 SE Stevens Rd Unit 65-303 Happy Valley, OR	1.0	1.0	620	$1,440	$2.32	24d	1	0.82mi
11430 SE Stevens Rd Happy Valley, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,150	$2.13	2d	8	0.88mi
12582 SE Linwood Ave Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	707	$1,325	$1.87	13d	3	0.92mi
12435 SE Linwood Ave Milwaukie, OR	2.0	1.0	578	$1,749	$3.03	4d	8	0.97mi
8106 SE Lake Rd Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,622	$2.29	4d	15	1.24mi
9977 SE Talbert St Clackamas, OR	1.0	1.0	610	$1,595	$2.61	8d	1	1.25mi
9840 SE Talbert St Clackamas, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,724	$1.90	2d	26	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   price $49,000 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Cozy and affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home located in a friendly, well-kept community. Features an open living area, kitchen, and plenty of natural light. Perfect for first-time buyers or those seeking simple living. Low maintenance and great value!

6. 2026-03-04
   price $54,900 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Cozy and affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home located in a friendly, well-kept community. Features an open living area, kitchen, and plenty of natural light. Perfect for first-time buyers or those seeking simple living. Low maintenance and great value!

7. 2026-01-22
   listed $69,900 Active 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Cozy and affordable 2 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home located in a friendly, well-kept community. Features an open living area, kitchen, and plenty of natural light. Perfect for first-time buyers or those seeking simple living. Low maintenance and great value!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $141 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $475 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$334/yr (+$28/mo · 236.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$141
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $11,361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,727
• After-tax cash flow: $8,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Milwaukie

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #108

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 36,398
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 36,398
• Household income: $83,119
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1823.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -447.07%
• Current HPI: 306.8458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-29.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $49,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $54,900 RMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $69,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2018): $141 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.