Is 70200 Dillon #196 in Desert Edge, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B with a 24.8% cap rate and $444/mo modeled cash flow at a $37,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 70200 Dillon #196?

The modeled cap rate is 24.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,044/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B Composite 74.84

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
1% rule +10.0/10.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -6.5

$37,000

70200 Dillon #196 · Desert Edge, CA 92241

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2005 Good condition $92/sqft · 24% below area Est $49k · 24% under ↓ 43% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Bright and Cheery! Come find your vacation getaway or perhaps the Caliente rental program here in the sun with this immaculate, efficient, and well maintained 2005 Cavco Park Model ~400 sq. ft. 1 bedroom, 1 bath which has central heating/air conditioning and vaulted ceilings. This is a very well-appointed home and just ready to bring your clothes and enjoy the peaceful serenity of this magnificent park.

Key facts

Central heating
Air conditioning
Fitness center

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $37k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $37k).
Recommended offer: $36k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 10.1% in Desert Edge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#297 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D-, employment F.
Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Julius Corsini Elementary (409 students, 98% FRL); Desert Springs Middle (803 students, 99% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $256 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,890 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.82% ✓
Cap rate: 24.75%
Cash-on-cash: 65.93%
DSCR: 3.93
GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $49,000
List price: $37,000
Delta: -24.49%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70200 Dillon Rd #393	0.01mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	6mo	$26,500	$66	95
70200 Dillon Rd #25	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	7mo	$32,500	$81	94
70200 Dillon Rd #402	0.01mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	7mo	$95,000	$238	94
70200 Dillon Rd #425	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	9mo	$47,000	$118	92
70200 Dillon Rd #192	0.16mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	8mo	$43,000	$108	86
70200 Dillon Rd #2	0.27mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	7mo	$50,000	$125	82
70200 Dillon Rd #190	0.27mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	9mo	$40,000	$100	80
70200 Dillon Rd #28	0.27mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	14mo	$38,000	$95	76
70200 Dillon Rd #585	0.32mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	11mo	$58,000	$145	75
70200 Dillon Rd #515	0.27mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	18mo	$45,000	$113	72
70201 Aurora Rd #149	0.59mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	8mo	$54,000	$135	66
17405 Corkill Rd #22	0.57mi	1/1.0	432 (+8%)	8mo	$65,000	$150	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 49.4%
Equity multiple: 3.16×
Total profit: $22,377
Equity at exit: $5,517

10-year hold

IRR: 55.0%
Equity multiple: 6.43×
Total profit: $56,278
Equity at exit: $3,199

Cash invested: $10,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 29 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 174.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $69,500 ($174/sqft)
Median days on market: 61 d
This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -29.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92241

Home prices YoY: -22.8%
Active inventory: 336
Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,044 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$194
Tax est. 1.5%: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
Insurance: −$15
Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $482

Max offer price $37,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $457	+0% $444	+5% $431	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $403	+0% $444	+5% $485	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $453	base $444	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $9,250
Closing costs: $1,110
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Monthly space rent: $711Manager approval required
HOA & community: Senior communityDog parkPickleball courtsGolf course within the developmentTrailer storage available

Exterior

Parking: Driveway with two uncovered parking spaces
Security: Gated communityAutomatic gateCard/code accessExterior security lightsClosed-circuit cameras
Utilities: Water in streetOn-site sewerCable TV
Home design: One storyGround-level entry with stepsSouth-facing front doorDetached
Construction: Built in 2005Cavco constructionSiding exteriorPier-jack and tie-down foundation
Exterior features: DeckAccessory buildingsGrab bars in bathroomMountain views

Interior

Kitchen: Formica countersGas range, refrigerator, microwave oven
Bedrooms: Main-floor bedroom
Flooring: Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroomShower and tub
Heating & cooling: Electric central heatingHeat pumpForced-air heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsBlindsSliding doorsTurnkey furnished
Laundry & utility: Community laundryElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $37,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $37,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $37,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $37,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $37,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $37,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $37,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $37,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $37,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $37,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $37,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $37,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $37,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $37,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $37,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $37,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $37,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $37,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $37,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $37,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $37,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $37,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $37,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $37,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $37,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $37,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $37,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $37,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $37,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-10-09

days on marketlisting id $37,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $37,000 Active 364 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $37,000 Active 363 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $37,000 Active 362 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $37,000 Active 361 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $37,000 Active 359 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $37,000 Active 358 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $37,000 Active 357 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $37,000 Active 356 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $37,000 Active 355 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $37,000 Active 354 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $37,000 Active 353 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $37,000 Active 352 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $37,000 Active 351 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $37,000 Active 350 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $37,000 Active 349 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $37,000 Active 348 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $37,000 Active 347 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $37,000 Active 346 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $37,000 Active 345 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $37,000 Active 339 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥109°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $12,531
− Mortgage interest: −$2,073
− Property taxes: −$555
− Insurance: −$1,688
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
− Management: −$1,002
− Depreciation: −$1,076
Taxable income: $5,134

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,232
After-tax cash flow: $4,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,000–$6,000 screening

This 2005 Cavco Park Model manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
Both replace sliding glass doors — improves energy efficiency and resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Julius Corsini Elementary Middle Desert Springs Middle High Desert Hot Springs High F CA #532/1,170 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Palm Springs Unified
NCES district ID: 0629550
Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $43,638
Composite: 26.76/100
National rank: #7131
State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Desert Edge

Score: 68/100
State rank: #297
US rank: #9953

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Desert Edge, CA
County: Riverside · 2,664,475 people
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP): 8,624
Household income: $45,210
Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
Current HPI: 400.5663
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

-43.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

2026-10-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
2026-10-01 Listed $37,000 GPSMLS
2026-04-15 Price Changed $37,000 GPSMLS
2025-10-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
2025-10-01 Listed $46,000 GPSMLS
2025-06-18 Listed $46,000 GPSMLS
2025-06-16 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
2025-03-16 Listed $46,000 GPSMLS
2025-03-14 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
2025-01-30 Price Changed $46,000 GPSMLS
2024-11-13 Listed $52,000 GPSMLS
2024-05-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
2024-01-30 Price Changed $58,500 GPSMLS
2023-12-13 Listed $65,000 GPSMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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