16392 Many Trees Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2003 7,405 sqft lot Est $235k · 17% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to the quiet neighborhood of Summerset Estates in the booming city of Conroe. . This charming property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a partially covered and screened in 12x36 patio/deck! The carpet and 50 gallon water heater are less than 2 yrs old. Both the master and guest baths have tons of counter and storage space. Master bath features an oversize soaking tub and a separate shower. The master bedroom has a trey ceiling and the family room has a vaulted ceiling. Kitchen has a large island for prepping and serving. This home has a ton of potential to make it your own. Would be a perfect starter home for a new family or would be great if looking to downsize. It has the feel of country, but is conveniently located just 7 miles from shopping and dining at I45, Hwy 59, and the brand new Grand Texas Theme Park! It's only a short 25 min drive to Lake Conroe! This property has great drainage and has NEVER FLOODED! Make your offer soon because this one won't last long!

Key facts

• One-of-a-kind island
• Generator plug
• Oversized garage

Tags

• ONE-OF-A-KIND ISLAND
• GENERATOR PLUG
• HUGE COVERED BACK DECK
• OVERSIZED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16371 Long Valley Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,264 (0%)	6mo	$190,000	$150	89
16293 Sun View Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,264 (0%)	5mo	$189,000	$150	86
16956 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-5%)	6mo	$228,485	$189	75
16317 Sun View Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-9%)	5mo	$190,000	$165	73
16686 Sterling Cliff St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+11%)	2mo	$242,090	$172	68
16408 Windy Cove Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	6mo	$234,460	$195	67
16228 Sun View Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-9%)	5mo	$180,000	$157	65
16981 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+11%)	6mo	$264,690	$188	64
16997 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+15%)	6mo	$254,390	$176	58
16125 Sepia Manor St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	3mo	$239,840	$199	58
16674 Sterling Cliff St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+15%)	6mo	$269,040	$186	57
16181 Sepia Manor St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,204 (-5%)	7mo	$239,990	$199	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,833
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $19,387
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,199/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	0.06mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	0.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $195,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 691-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $195,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,199 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 11.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,199
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$183
• After-tax cash flow: $3,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Coming Soon $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-13 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-11-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-14 Listed $142,500 HARMLS
• 2003-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,199 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.