744 Tarte Rd · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$868,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Other public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2014 1.91 ac lot $683/sqft · 23% below area Est $1129k · 23% under $40/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TURNKEY VACATION RENTAL OPPORTUNITY. Located near Roche Harbor on San Juan Island, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath modern cabin sits tucked among the trees on nearly 2 private acres, offering the seclusion and natural beauty that guests consistently love, reflected in its outstanding rental history and glowing reviews. Built in 2014, the 1,270 sq ft home features hardwood floors, soaring vaulted ceilings, a stunning wall of windows, and modern comfortable furnishings throughout, with two gas fireplaces adding warmth and ambiance. Sold completely turnkey with everything guests already love included, from bikes and board games to a turntable and vinyl collection, making this a seamless transi

Key facts

• Gas grill
• Covered patio
• Fire pit

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• FIRE PIT
• HORSESHOE PITS
• GAS GRILL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $868k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-52k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (87.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (84.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (87.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.3% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($842k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $489k; list at $868k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,604 (87.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 87% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.16% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.42%
• DSCR: 0.05
• GRM: 53.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,128,670
• List price: $868,000
• Delta: -23.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -61.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-417,264
• Equity at exit: $129,422

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.96×
• Total profit: $-720,481
• Equity at exit: $75,049

Cash invested: $243,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 53.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,552
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,430/yr
• Insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-4,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,843

Max offer price $108,604

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,846	-5% $-4,092	+0% $-4,338	+5% $-4,583	+10% $-4,829
Rent	-10% $-4,444	-5% $-4,391	+0% $-4,338	+5% $-4,284	+10% $-4,231
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,901	-0.5pp $-4,117	base $-4,338	+0.5pp $-4,563	+1.0pp $-4,791

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $217,000
• Closing costs: $26,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $868,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $868,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $868,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $868,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $868,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $868,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $868,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $868,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $868,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $868,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $868,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $868,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $868,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $868,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $868,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $868,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $868,000 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $868,000 Active
19. 2020-06-22
    soldstatus $489,000 Sold
20. 2020-05-29
    status Pending
21. 2020-05-20
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2020-05-19
    price $489,000
23. 2020-03-25
    listed $499,000 Active
24. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus $425,000 Sold
25. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus $425,000
26. 2018-04-02
    status Pending
27. 2018-03-16
    status Pending Inspection
28. 2018-03-05
    listed $435,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,430 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,506 · $709/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,076/yr (+$256/mo · 56.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥76°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,621
• − Property taxes: −$5,430
• − Insurance: −$4,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$25,251
• Taxable loss: −$70,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,918
• After-tax cash flow: $-35,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roche Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $868,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-22 Sold (MLS) $489,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-19 Price Changed $489,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-25 Listed $499,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-12 Sold (MLS) $425,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-05 Listed $435,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,430 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.