512 Leader Ave · North Babylon, NY 11703

$308,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1953 6,000 sqft lot Est $569k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale Subject to Third Party Approval

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-236/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in North Babylon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• North Babylon Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #202 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parliament Place School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 447 students, 52% FRL); Robert Moses Middle School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #464 of 729 statewide, top 64%, 1,074 students, 49% FRL); North Babylon High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,506 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 24% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $308k implies a 1132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,180 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $568,752
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Parliament Pl	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	830 (+2%)	13mo	$510,000	$614	58
76 Parkdale Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	828 (+2%)	12mo	$480,000	$580	54
59 Rhoda Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	921 (+13%)	9mo	$642,000	$697	42
84 Dollard Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	892 (+9%)	16mo	$655,000	$734	33
291 W 4th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	933 (+14%)	7mo	$656,000	$703	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-50,976
• Equity at exit: $45,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-45,245
• Equity at exit: $26,630

Cash invested: $86,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11703

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax from tax record: −$616 /mo · $7,392/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,987

Max offer price $304,524

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $67	+0% $-20	+5% $-107	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-137	+0% $-20	+5% $97	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $59	base $-20	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,000
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-03-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-04
   listed $308,000 Active
3. 2007-04-20
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,392 · $616/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,392 · $616/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,253
• − Property taxes: −$7,392
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,843
• − Management: −$2,843
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$5,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Babylon Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3620910
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $88,645
• Composite: 53.49/100
• National rank: #1454
• State rank: #202 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Babylon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Babylon, NY
• City population: 17,205
• Population (ZIP): 17,205

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 4% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.92%
• Current HPI: 324.5829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1132.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Listed $308,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,392 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.