3009 Tilmon Ln · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$294,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2018 4,399 sqft lot $164/sqft · 20% below area Est $369k · 20% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next home in the sought-after Austin’s Colony community—just 10 minutes from Tesla, and 30 minutes from downtown Austin. Built in 2018, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a smart layout with modern finishes and functional design throughout. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features a spacious walk-in closet, oversized dual vanity, and a private retreat feel. The open-concept kitchen is perfect for entertaining or daily living, with ample counter space, a generous pantry, and clear sightlines to the dining and living areas. Upstairs you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a versatile loft—ideal as a media room, game room, or even a home office. The fenced backyard is pet-ready with a built-in doggy door and plenty of room to roam. A 2-car attached garage adds convenience and storage. Bonus: Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale—and the carpets have been replaced, and the interior freshly painted makes this property move-in ready without the hassle. Enjoy neighborhood amenities including parks, basketball courts, and a community pool. Whether you're buying your first home or upgrading your lifestyle, this one checks all the boxes. * * * SPECIAL INCENTIVE: Some buyers eligible for up to 3% of the purchase price as a grant from Bank of America.

Key facts

• Smart layout
• Ample counter space
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SMART LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,209 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,633
• List price: $294,500
• Delta: -20.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3112 Tilmon Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,795 (0%)	6mo	$312,990	$174	89
14511 Amy Francis St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-7%)	2mo	$259,000	$156	73
3526 Wickham Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,795 (0%)	9mo	$299,000	$167	66
14913 Ben Davis Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,861 (+4%)	14mo	$315,000	$169	65
14601 Fitzgibbon Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-7%)	9mo	$285,000	$171	61
14901 Ben Davis Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+14%)	1mo	$299,000	$146	60
3307 Etheredge Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-12%)	7mo	$267,500	$169	57
14706 Menifee St	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,035 (+13%)	9mo	$250,000	$123	51
801 Silver Wing Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-8%)	4mo	$299,900	$181	49
14308 Deaf Smith Blvd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+14%)	3mo	$324,000	$158	46
14500 Deaf Smith Blvd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-15%)	7mo	$295,000	$193	46
3514 Tilmon Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+14%)	14mo	$315,000	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,246
• Equity at exit: $43,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-127,725
• Equity at exit: $25,463

Cash invested: $82,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,901/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,665

Max offer price $221,491

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,625
• Closing costs: $8,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14912 Hartsmith Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,399	$1.12	44d	1	0.03mi
14910 Jolynn St Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2371	$2,200	$0.93	24d	1	0.08mi
14910 Jolynn St Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2371	$2,200	$0.93	4d	1	0.08mi
14909 Custis Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	44d	1	0.11mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.24mi
14908 Ben Davis Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2029	$1,995	$0.98	16d	1	0.25mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	2d	1	0.36mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	24d	1	0.42mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	22d	1	0.42mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	44d	1	0.42mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.43mi
3201 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,800	$1.31	44d	1	0.44mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	4d	1	0.44mi
3403 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2320	$1,950	$0.84	4d	1	0.47mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	44d	1	0.48mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	3d	1	0.60mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	24d	1	0.60mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	44d	1	0.61mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	24d	1	0.68mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	22d	1	0.77mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	12d	1	0.77mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.80mi
601 Silver Wing Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,100	$1.05	44d	1	0.83mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	24d	1	0.85mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.86mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	12d	1	0.93mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	0.93mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.99mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	4d	1	1.12mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	11d	1	1.15mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	16d	1	1.18mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	2d	1	1.22mi
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	24d	1	1.24mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	1.31mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,500 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,500 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,500 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,500 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,500 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $294,500 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $294,500 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $294,500 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    price $294,500 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-04-29
    price $295,000 1377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

    Welcome to your next home in the sought-after Austin’s Colony community—just 10 minutes from Tesla, and 30 minutes from downtown Austin. Built in 2018, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a smart layout with modern finishes and functional design throughout. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features a spacious walk-in closet, oversized dual vanity, and a private retreat feel. The open-concept kitchen is perfect for entertaining or daily living, with ample counter space, a generous pantry, and clear sightlines to the dining and living areas. Upstairs you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a versatile loft—ideal as a media room, game room, or even a home office. The fenced backyard is pet-ready with a built-in doggy door and plenty of room to roam. A 2-car attached garage adds convenience and storage. Bonus: Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale—and the carpets have been replaced, and the interior freshly painted makes this property move-in ready without the hassle. Enjoy neighborhood amenities including parks, basketball courts, and a community pool. Whether you're buying your first home or upgrading your lifestyle, this one checks all the boxes. * * * SPECIAL INCENTIVE: Some buyers eligible for up to 3% of the purchase price as a grant from Bank of America.

13. 2026-04-10
    price $299,000 1377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

    Welcome to your next home in the sought-after Austin’s Colony community—just 10 minutes from Tesla, and 30 minutes from downtown Austin. Built in 2018, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a smart layout with modern finishes and functional design throughout. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features a spacious walk-in closet, oversized dual vanity, and a private retreat feel. The open-concept kitchen is perfect for entertaining or daily living, with ample counter space, a generous pantry, and clear sightlines to the dining and living areas. Upstairs you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a versatile loft—ideal as a media room, game room, or even a home office. The fenced backyard is pet-ready with a built-in doggy door and plenty of room to roam. A 2-car attached garage adds convenience and storage. Bonus: Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale—and the carpets have been replaced, and the interior freshly painted makes this property move-in ready without the hassle. Enjoy neighborhood amenities including parks, basketball courts, and a community pool. Whether you're buying your first home or upgrading your lifestyle, this one checks all the boxes. * * * SPECIAL INCENTIVE: Some buyers eligible for up to 3% of the purchase price as a grant from Bank of America.

14. 2026-03-30
    listed $310,000 Active 1377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

    Welcome to your next home in the sought-after Austin’s Colony community—just 10 minutes from Tesla, and 30 minutes from downtown Austin. Built in 2018, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a smart layout with modern finishes and functional design throughout. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features a spacious walk-in closet, oversized dual vanity, and a private retreat feel. The open-concept kitchen is perfect for entertaining or daily living, with ample counter space, a generous pantry, and clear sightlines to the dining and living areas. Upstairs you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a versatile loft—ideal as a media room, game room, or even a home office. The fenced backyard is pet-ready with a built-in doggy door and plenty of room to roam. A 2-car attached garage adds convenience and storage. Bonus: Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with the sale—and the carpets have been replaced, and the interior freshly painted makes this property move-in ready without the hassle. Enjoy neighborhood amenities including parks, basketball courts, and a community pool. Whether you're buying your first home or upgrading your lifestyle, this one checks all the boxes. * * * SPECIAL INCENTIVE: Some buyers eligible for up to 3% of the purchase price as a grant from Bank of America.

15. 2025-04-06
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,901 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,389 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,497
• − Property taxes: −$4,901
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,567
• Taxable loss: −$10,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $295,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $299,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $310,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-06 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,901 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.