Plan 1637 Modeled Plan · Memphis, FL 34221

$293,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily · 285 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Smart thermostat * Tile flooring at entry, kitchen, baths and laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Stainless steel appliances * Flush kitchen breakfast bar * Split-bedroom layout * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Spacious laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby * Pond * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TILE FLOORING
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLUSH KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $285,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Plan 1637 Modeled; Single-family plan (addressed as 8713 Royal Acacia Ave, Palmetto, FL)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: 2 full bathrooms

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $479,559.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,480 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.44%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $479,559
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8761 Royal Acacia Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-8%)	4mo	$327,839	$217	74
3208 Osteen Cv	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-8%)	7mo	$313,850	$208	73
2878 89th Street Cir E	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,637 (0%)	19mo	$345,000	$211	67
2710 93rd Ct E	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (-0%)	10mo	$395,000	$242	63
4015 86th St E	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-6%)	5mo	$315,447	$205	55
8547 40th Cir E	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-6%)	12mo	$430,000	$279	50
9207 Optimist Way	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-9%)	3mo	$289,999	$195	43
2676 89th Street Cir E	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-8%)	22mo	$345,000	$228	42
9519 27th Ave E	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+5%)	20mo	$356,357	$207	41
2807 94th St E	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-13%)	18mo	$390,000	$274	36
3432 97th Ln E	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-14%)	6mo	$290,000	$206	32
3209 77th Ct E	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+15%)	10mo	$460,000	$245	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-166,742
• Equity at exit: $71,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-279,177
• Equity at exit: $41,464

Cash invested: $134,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,515
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$599 /mo · $7,193/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-1,280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,195

Max offer price $294,336

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-949	-5% $-1,114	+0% $-1,280	+5% $-1,446	+10% $-1,611
Rent	-10% $-1,483	-5% $-1,382	+0% $-1,280	+5% $-1,178	+10% $-1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,039	-0.5pp $-1,158	base $-1,280	+0.5pp $-1,404	+1.0pp $-1,531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,890
• Closing costs: $14,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9204 34th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	13d	1	0.33mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	25d	1	0.35mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	22d	1	0.60mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	22d	1	0.67mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,445	$2.48	4d	220	1.04mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	25d	1	1.04mi
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,990	$1.35	4d	1	1.04mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	25d	1	1.22mi
8960 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,650	$1.34	25d	1	1.23mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	25d	99	1.44mi
4816 Heinman Cv Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$3,300	$1.72	12d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,990 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $293,990 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,990 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,990 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,990 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,990 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $288,990 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,990 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,990 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $288,990 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,990 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,990 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,990 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $288,990 Active 267 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,863
• − Property taxes: −$7,193
• − Insurance: −$2,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$13,951
• Taxable loss: −$24,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,868
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B