20 Gibson St · Folkston, GA 31537

$98,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1982 0.30 ac lot $101/sqft · 35% below area Est $152k · 35% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently accepting cash only.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($487/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Folkston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#191 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlton County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #94 of 174 in GA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Charlton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,654 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,978
• List price: $98,900
• Delta: -34.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,190
• Equity at exit: $59,020

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $81,800
• Equity at exit: $104,410

Cash invested: $27,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31537

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $98,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,725
• Closing costs: $2,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $98,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,900 Price Change 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,900 Price Change 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $98,900 Price Change 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,888 Price Change 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on market $99,888 Price Change 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $99,900 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

17. 2026-04-15
    price $109,888 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

18. 2026-04-12
    status Price Change 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

19. 2026-04-12
    price $109,900 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

20. 2026-04-02
    status Under Contract 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

21. 2026-03-30
    price $114,488 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

22. 2026-03-22
    listed $114,900 New 30-char remark

    Show marketing remark (30 chars)

    Currently accepting cash only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,540
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$880
• − Management: −$880
• − Depreciation: −$2,877
• Taxable loss: −$1,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlton County
• NCES district ID: 1300990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,024
• Composite: 25.75/100
• National rank: #7374
• State rank: #94 of 174 in GA

Livability — Folkston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #11801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Folkston, GA
• Population (ZIP): 9,343

Population outlook (Charlton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,147 people
• By 2030: 13,116 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 13,025 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 12,954 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 12,941 · -1.6%
• By 2100: 11,206 · -14.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.2) · D 21.8% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -56.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.2 2020: R+50.7 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 318.9275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $109,888 GAMLS
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $109,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $114,488 GAMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $114,900 GAMLS