407 Freeze Rd · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22642

$389,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2002 0.83 ac lot $214/sqft · 6% below area Est $416k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RENOVATED RAMBLER WITH OVER 1700 SQ FT OF LIVING SPACE ON 2 LEVELS. .. FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT WITH LARGE REC ROOM, FULL BATH AND BEDROOM. .. NEW GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NEW SS APPLIANCES, NEW HVAC, NEW CARPET, DECK, FRESHLY PAINTED & MUCH MORE. .. NICE FRONT PORCH. .. READY TO MOVE INTO- YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. .

Key facts

• 0.83 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with shared driveway access
• Utilities: Private well water; On-site septic (septic exists, septic pump); Electric service
• Home design: Detached home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Carpet; Combination kitchen/dining; Crown moldings; Family room off kitchen; Traditional floor plan; Fully finished walkout basement; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-867 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (51.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilda J. Barbour Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 469 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $390k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $190,526 (51.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,631
• List price: $389,999
• Delta: -6.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Tee Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (-3%)	8mo	$352,000	$198	59
138 Parkside Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (0%)	4mo	$325,000	$178	58
317 Long View Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (0%)	20mo	$325,000	$178	44
2478 High Top Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (-12%)	13mo	$270,000	$169	28
308 Blue Valley Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-13%)	23mo	$407,500	$257	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $156,986
• Equity at exit: $351,342

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $505,407
• Equity at exit: $757,682

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22642

• Home prices YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,979/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,003

Max offer price $236,759

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-647	-5% $-757	+0% $-867	+5% $-978	+10% $-1,088
Rent	-10% $-1,018	-5% $-943	+0% $-867	+5% $-792	+10% $-717
Rate	-1.0pp $-671	-0.5pp $-768	base $-867	+0.5pp $-969	+1.0pp $-1,071

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,999 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,999 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,999 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,999 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,999 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,999 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $389,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,999 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,999 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $399,999 Active 732-char remark
16. 2026-05-09
    historical $399,999 732-char remark
17. 2017-06-21
    soldstatus $199,000
18. 2017-06-16
    soldstatus $199,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    RENOVATED RAMBLER WITH OVER 1700 SQ FT OF LIVING SPACE ON 2 LEVELS. .. FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT WITH LARGE REC ROOM, FULL BATH AND BEDROOM. .. NEW GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NEW SS APPLIANCES, NEW HVAC, NEW CARPET, DECK, FRESHLY PAINTED & MUCH MORE. .. NICE FRONT PORCH. .. READY TO MOVE INTO- YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. .

19. 2017-06-16
    soldstatus $199,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    RENOVATED RAMBLER WITH OVER 1700 SQ FT OF LIVING SPACE ON 2 LEVELS. .. FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT WITH LARGE REC ROOM, FULL BATH AND BEDROOM. .. NEW GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NEW SS APPLIANCES, NEW HVAC, NEW CARPET, DECK, FRESHLY PAINTED & MUCH MORE. .. NICE FRONT PORCH. .. READY TO MOVE INTO- YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. .

20. 2017-05-19
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    RENOVATED RAMBLER WITH OVER 1700 SQ FT OF LIVING SPACE ON 2 LEVELS. .. FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT WITH LARGE REC ROOM, FULL BATH AND BEDROOM. .. NEW GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NEW SS APPLIANCES, NEW HVAC, NEW CARPET, DECK, FRESHLY PAINTED & MUCH MORE. .. NICE FRONT PORCH. .. READY TO MOVE INTO- YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. .

21. 2017-05-06
    listed $199,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    RENOVATED RAMBLER WITH OVER 1700 SQ FT OF LIVING SPACE ON 2 LEVELS. .. FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT WITH LARGE REC ROOM, FULL BATH AND BEDROOM. .. NEW GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, NEW SS APPLIANCES, NEW HVAC, NEW CARPET, DECK, FRESHLY PAINTED & MUCH MORE. .. NICE FRONT PORCH. .. READY TO MOVE INTO- YOU WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,198 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,219/yr (+$102/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$1,979
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$17,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.77%
• Current HPI: 437.0062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+95.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $389,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $399,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $399,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-16 Sold (MLS) $199,000 MRIS
• 2017-06-16 Sold (MLS) $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-19 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-05-06 Listed $199,500 MRIS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,979 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.