11724 White Cedar St · Willis, TX 77318

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2022 8,694 sqft lot Est $160k · 9% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Positive cash flowing investment property. Tenant occupied. No showings without an executed contract. Perfect opportunity to purchase a turnkey cash flowing property in a phenomenal area that is experiencing growth. CURRENTLY THIS HOME IS BEING LISTED FOR $1450 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN WALNUT COVE THIS IS A VERY DESIRABLE STREET

Key facts

• 8,694 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has additional parcel(s)
• HOA & community: Walnut Cove POA; Quarterly association fee (about $57); Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas and recreation facilities; Community amenities include basketball court, boat ramp, clubhouse, meeting/banquet/party room, picnic area, playground, pickleball, park, pool

Exterior

• Parking: Road access via asphalt and gravel
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Single-story (all main rooms on the first floor)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Community pool (association); Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 11x9 each)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; Pantry; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.38%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11753 White Cedar St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	96
11755 White Cedar St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	95
11847 Nelwood St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$159,900	$160	90
9770 Blackgum Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	988 (-1%)	2mo	$158,000	$160	83
9775 Black Gum	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	4mo	$154,900	$155	83
9866 Arbor Oak St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	82
9864 Arbor Oak St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	82
9868 Arbor Oak St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	82
9583 Darkwood St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	6mo	$159,900	$160	80
10088 Calendar St	0.41mi	3/2.0	930 (-7%)	1mo	$159,900	$172	68
9563 Darkwood St	0.27mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,072 (+7%)	3mo	$159,000	$148	66
11712 White Cedar St	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	855 (-14%)	2mo	$145,000	$170	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,327
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-705
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,631/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,341

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.11mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	43d	1	0.11mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	43d	1	0.12mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	0.23mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.23mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.25mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.86mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.90mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 329-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,631 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,631
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,638
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$393
• After-tax cash flow: $3,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,631 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.