775 Whitaker Cir · Sherwood Shores, TX 76245

$142,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2013 10,019 sqft lot $131/sqft · 11% below area Est $159k · 11% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a million-dollar view in a peaceful country setting! Conveniently located just minutes from Lake Texoma and several marinas, this property also sits only a few miles from local casinos. Enjoy easy access to Highway 377 for a smooth commute to Dallas or Oklahoma City. The home features a large covered back porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with no neighbors behind you, offering added privacy and beautiful, uninterrupted views. A perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and scenic living!

Key facts

• Uninterrupted views
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 2013

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 377
• LARGE COVERED BACK PORCH
• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND YOU
• UNINTERRUPTED VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-853/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Whitesboro ISD (town): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #272 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $888 of equity ($982 loan paydown + $-94 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,126 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,185
• List price: $142,000
• Delta: -10.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,158
• Equity at exit: $40,763

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,191
• Equity at exit: $48,626

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76245

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,173/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,141

Max offer price $129,437

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $142,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $142,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $142,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a million-dollar view in a peaceful country setting! Conveniently located just minutes from Lake Texoma and several marinas, this property also sits only a few miles from local casinos. Enjoy easy access to Highway 377 for a smooth commute to Dallas or Oklahoma City. The home features a large covered back porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—along with no neighbors behind you, offering added privacy and beautiful, uninterrupted views. A perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and scenic living!

16. 2026-02-01
    historical
17. 2025-11-29
    price $165,000
18. 2025-10-24
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,425/yr (+$119/mo · 121.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$1,173
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable loss: −$3,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $-44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitesboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845630
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,672
• Composite: 38.19/100
• National rank: #4260
• State rank: #272 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sherwood Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,778

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Current HPI: 130.9903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $142,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $175,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,173 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.