438 Milton · Bethlehem, PA 18018

$198,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 750 sqft lot $275/sqft · 23% above area Est $235k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to purchase this end of row home in North Bethlehem. Whether you are a first time home buyer or a savvy investor, this fits the criteria. Location is key here. Close to schools, parks and everything Bethlehem has to offer. This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home can be turned into a GEM with some TLC. First floor offers a living room, large eat in kitchen with a full bathroom. Second floor offers 2 good sized private bedrooms. Gas utilities such as stove, heat and hot water. Best of all, LOW TAXES! Clear CO on hand. Very easy to show. Hurry and make your appointment before it's gone!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story brick home; Two total stories
• Construction: Brick construction; Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Not in a subdivision; Has a view; Below-grade finished area of about 200 (finished basement space)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two second-floor bedrooms (each about 14 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor (approx. 6 x 6); One half bathroom in the basement (approx. 13 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless and forced air heating; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement (partial, other)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 103 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $137k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,369 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,267
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
438 Milton St	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	11mo	$137,000	$190	91
436 Milton St	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	16mo	$150,000	$208	87
434 Milton St	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	23mo	$110,000	$153	81
432 Milton St	0.01mi	2/1.0	810 (+12%)	7mo	$141,000	$174	73
11 W 2nd St #212	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	748 (+4%)	20mo	$210,000	$281	38
11 W 2nd St #211	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (+4%)	22mo	$210,000	$280	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,408
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,869
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18018

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,769/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $189	+0% $133	+5% $77	+10% $21
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $63	+0% $133	+5% $203	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $183	base $133	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
650 E North St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,350	$2.51	14d	7	0.34mi
330 E Goepp St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	714	$1,500	$2.10	14d	1	0.41mi
401 E Goepp St #2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,875	$2.50	24d	1	0.43mi
610 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$3,008	$3.09	3d	8	0.57mi
30 W Broad St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$2,620	$3.97	3d	20	0.64mi
30 W Broad St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	648	$2,490	$3.84	14d	14	0.64mi
738 E 4th St Unit 3 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	14d	1	0.65mi
738 E 4th St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	14d	1	0.65mi
26 W North St Unit 3 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	440	$1,175	$2.67	3d	1	0.65mi
38 W Union Blvd #3 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,500	$3.75	24d	1	0.72mi
1218 Mechanic St Unit 5 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	0.75mi
128 W Union Blvd Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	656	$1,500	$2.29	3d	1	0.87mi
146 W Broad St Unit 3rd floor Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	520	$1,200	$2.31	44d	1	0.90mi
682 Hayes St Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	693	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.92mi
201 Hillmond St Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	647	$1,375	$2.13	24d	1	0.96mi
1130 Pembroke Rd Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	44d	1	0.96mi
228 W 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	44d	1	0.97mi
542 2nd Ave Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	590	$1,550	$2.63	14d	1	0.99mi
417 Wyandotte St Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	14d	1	1.13mi
1825 Watkins St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	429	$1,450	$3.38	14d	2	1.25mi
517 Seneca St Unit 3 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	44d	1	1.32mi
1630 E 9th St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	14d	1	1.34mi
801 W Broad St Unit 3 Bethlehem, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,699	$2.43	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $198,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-05-16
   listed $199,900 Active 1129-char remark
9. 2025-07-29
   soldstatus $137,000
10. 2025-07-24
    soldstatus $137,000 Closed 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Great opportunity to purchase this end of row home in North Bethlehem. Whether you are a first time home buyer or a savvy investor, this fits the criteria. Location is key here. Close to schools, parks and everything Bethlehem has to offer. This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home can be turned into a GEM with some TLC. First floor offers a living room, large eat in kitchen with a full bathroom. Second floor offers 2 good sized private bedrooms. Gas utilities such as stove, heat and hot water. Best of all, LOW TAXES! Clear CO on hand. Very easy to show. Hurry and make your appointment before it's gone!

11. 2025-06-13
    status Pending 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Great opportunity to purchase this end of row home in North Bethlehem. Whether you are a first time home buyer or a savvy investor, this fits the criteria. Location is key here. Close to schools, parks and everything Bethlehem has to offer. This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home can be turned into a GEM with some TLC. First floor offers a living room, large eat in kitchen with a full bathroom. Second floor offers 2 good sized private bedrooms. Gas utilities such as stove, heat and hot water. Best of all, LOW TAXES! Clear CO on hand. Very easy to show. Hurry and make your appointment before it's gone!

12. 2025-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Great opportunity to purchase this end of row home in North Bethlehem. Whether you are a first time home buyer or a savvy investor, this fits the criteria. Location is key here. Close to schools, parks and everything Bethlehem has to offer. This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home can be turned into a GEM with some TLC. First floor offers a living room, large eat in kitchen with a full bathroom. Second floor offers 2 good sized private bedrooms. Gas utilities such as stove, heat and hot water. Best of all, LOW TAXES! Clear CO on hand. Very easy to show. Hurry and make your appointment before it's gone!

13. 2025-05-14
    historical
14. 2025-04-13
    listed $159,900 Active
15. 2025-04-09
    soldstatus $100,000
16. 2025-04-04
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold
17. 2025-02-26
    status Pending
18. 2025-02-26
    listed $100,000 Active
19. 1985-12-01
    soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,769 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$1,769
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$1,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$416
• After-tax cash flow: $2,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethlehem, PA
• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 32,965
• Household income: $75,417
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1361.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 301.1699
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+676.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $198,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $195,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $199,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-24 Sold (MLS) $137,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-06-13 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $159,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2025-04-13 Listed $159,900 GLVRMLS
• 2025-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-04 Sold (MLS) $100,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $100,000 GLVRMLS
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,769 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.