227 Lewis Road (b) Rd · Sandy Hook, KY 41171

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked back in a quiet holler, this 12.5 acre property offers the seclusion and simplicity of true country living. Surrounded by wooded hills and filled with charm, it's an ideal spot for a homestead, hunting retreat, or peaceful rural escape. This property includes 2 bed, 1 bath mobile homes that are in need of updates and repairs. A great opportunity for someone ready to bring new life to the land. Live in one while repairing the other, or build your dream home. Utilities are in place with electric, well water, septic system, and potential access to county water. Usable area around the homes for some small live stock, garden, or just to enjoy the outdoor. With the rest of the land stretching up into the wooded hillside, perfect for exploring, hiking, or hunting. Buyer to verify all property boundaries to their own satisfaction. Seller makes no representations to warranties as to the exact location of boundary lines. A survey is recommended.

Key facts

• 12.5 acre property
• Utilities in place
• Electric

Tags

• 12.5 ACRE PROPERTY
• UTILITIES IN PLACE
• ELECTRIC
• WELL WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• USABLE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($809 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#499 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elliott County (rural): math 12% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #158 of 165 in KY (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Elliott County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.12%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $17,385
• Equity at exit: $26,934

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $47,794
• Equity at exit: $41,508

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41171

• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Tucked back in a quiet holler, this 12.5 acre property offers the seclusion and simplicity of true country living. Surrounded by wooded hills and filled with charm, it's an ideal spot for a homestead, hunting retreat, or peaceful rural escape. This property includes 2 bed, 1 bath mobile homes that are in need of updates and repairs. A great opportunity for someone ready to bring new life to the land. Live in one while repairing the other, or build your dream home. Utilities are in place with electric, well water, septic system, and potential access to county water. Usable area around the homes for some small live stock, garden, or just to enjoy the outdoor. With the rest of the land stretching up into the wooded hillside, perfect for exploring, hiking, or hunting. Buyer to verify all property boundaries to their own satisfaction. Seller makes no representations to warranties as to the exact location of boundary lines. A survey is recommended.

2. 2025-11-13
   status Pending 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Tucked back in a quiet holler, this 12.5 acre property offers the seclusion and simplicity of true country living. Surrounded by wooded hills and filled with charm, it's an ideal spot for a homestead, hunting retreat, or peaceful rural escape. This property includes 2 bed, 1 bath mobile homes that are in need of updates and repairs. A great opportunity for someone ready to bring new life to the land. Live in one while repairing the other, or build your dream home. Utilities are in place with electric, well water, septic system, and potential access to county water. Usable area around the homes for some small live stock, garden, or just to enjoy the outdoor. With the rest of the land stretching up into the wooded hillside, perfect for exploring, hiking, or hunting. Buyer to verify all property boundaries to their own satisfaction. Seller makes no representations to warranties as to the exact location of boundary lines. A survey is recommended.

3. 2025-10-03
   listed $59,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Tucked back in a quiet holler, this 12.5 acre property offers the seclusion and simplicity of true country living. Surrounded by wooded hills and filled with charm, it's an ideal spot for a homestead, hunting retreat, or peaceful rural escape. This property includes 2 bed, 1 bath mobile homes that are in need of updates and repairs. A great opportunity for someone ready to bring new life to the land. Live in one while repairing the other, or build your dream home. Utilities are in place with electric, well water, septic system, and potential access to county water. Usable area around the homes for some small live stock, garden, or just to enjoy the outdoor. With the rest of the land stretching up into the wooded hillside, perfect for exploring, hiking, or hunting. Buyer to verify all property boundaries to their own satisfaction. Seller makes no representations to warranties as to the exact location of boundary lines. A survey is recommended.

4. 2025-10-03
   listed $59,900 Active 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Tucked back in a quiet holler, this 12.5 acre property offers the seclusion and simplicity of true country living. Surrounded by wooded hills and filled with charm, it's an ideal spot for a homestead, hunting retreat, or peaceful rural escape. This property includes 2 bed, 1 bath mobile homes that are in need of updates and repairs. A great opportunity for someone ready to bring new life to the land. Live in one while repairing the other, or build your dream home. Utilities are in place with electric, well water, septic system, and potential access to county water. Usable area around the homes for some small live stock, garden, or just to enjoy the outdoor. With the rest of the land stretching up into the wooded hillside, perfect for exploring, hiking, or hunting. Buyer to verify all property boundaries to their own satisfaction. Seller makes no representations to warranties as to the exact location of boundary lines. A survey is recommended.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$1,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$777
• − Management: −$777
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $1,063
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$255
• After-tax cash flow: $1,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elliott County
• NCES district ID: 2101680
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $29,279
• Composite: 17.51/100
• National rank: #9051
• State rank: #158 of 165 in KY

Livability — Sandy Hook

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #25273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,586

Population outlook (Elliott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,206 people
• By 2030: 6,867 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 6,134 · -14.9%
• By 2050: 5,487 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 4,178 · -42.0%
• By 2100: 3,131 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Elliott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.3% · R 80.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -87.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.2pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+44.3 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Pending — AABOR
• 2025-11-13 Pending — AABOR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $59,900 AABOR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $59,900 AABOR