4018 Windy Whisper Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 5,288 sqft lot $180/sqft · 8% below area Est $272k · 8% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Microwave oven
• Dishwasher
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHIRLPOOL 5 BURNER GAS RANGE
• MICROWAVE OVEN
• DISHWASHER
• 5 TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($35/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,672 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,563
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -7.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,251
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-63,004
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,258/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $74	+0% $3	+5% $-68	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-76	+0% $3	+5% $82	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $66	base $3	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $249,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

16. 2026-05-14
    price $249,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $262,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $263,255 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

19. 2026-05-06
    price $262,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

20. 2026-05-06
    price $262,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

21. 2026-05-02
    price $263,255 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

22. 2026-05-02
    status Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

23. 2026-04-21
    historical 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

24. 2026-04-02
    price $256,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

25. 2026-04-01
    price $256,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

26. 2026-02-13
    listed $262,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

27. 2026-02-07
    listed $262,900 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,316/yr (+$276/mo · 263.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,258
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $1,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $262,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $263,255 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $262,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $262,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $263,255 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $256,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $256,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $262,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $262,900 Zillow