996 Forest Valley Dr SE · Atlanta, GA 30354

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1961 0.38 ac lot Est $207k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy single story ranch home, with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Living room has a fire place for those chilly nights. Home has great bones, lots of potential to add your touches.

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; Resale; Built in 1961; One story
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Brick and vinyl siding; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One-level living; Family room; Fireplace in the family room; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-51/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Atlanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in GA, #919 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Atlanta Public Schools (urban): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #80 of 174 in GA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Academy Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,153 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 398 students, 100% FRL); Crawford Long Middle School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #462 of 470 statewide, top 99%, 705 students, 100% FRL); South Atlanta High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #385 of 424 statewide, top 92%, 928 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 71% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 6% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Atlanta Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $180k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
996 Forest Valley Dr SE	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,460 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$116	99
3970 Joanne Ct	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,475 (+1%)	2mo	$150,000	$102	70
3881 Bonnie Ln SE	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-8%)	5mo	$192,000	$142	67
3893 Bonnie Ln SE	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-8%)	11mo	$230,000	$170	61
1072 Vincent Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,435 (-2%)	14mo	$244,500	$170	53
1085 Hendon Rd SE	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	18mo	$252,000	$200	48
1035 Little Hampton Ct SE	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	16mo	$335,000	$209	45
3575 Pine Forest Dr SE	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,275 (-13%)	14mo	$147,000	$115	45
3489 Pine Forest Dr SE	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (+11%)	13mo	$220,000	$136	43
1114 Holly Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-8%)	17mo	$161,000	$120	42
3971 David Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,274 (-13%)	18mo	$137,000	$108	41
3514 Pine Forest Dr SE	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-14%)	19mo	$215,000	$171	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-25,211
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,143
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30354

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,413/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $179,145

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $47	+0% $-4	+5% $-55	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-69	+0% $-4	+5% $61	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $41	base $-4	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3450 Forrest Park Rd SE Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,537	$1.53	26d	11	0.55mi
1006 Hutchens Rd SE Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	881	$2,800	$3.18	26d	1	0.97mi
729 Blueridge Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,505	$1.31	7d	1	1.04mi
4168 Tara Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	975	$1,299	$1.33	45d	1	1.10mi
1381 Oakview Cir Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	26d	1	1.18mi
1381 Oakview Cir Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	1.18mi
1131 Stoneybrook Rd Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	1053	$3,400	$3.23	45d	1	1.25mi
3080 Forrest Park Rd SE Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1828	$1,950	$1.07	26d	1	1.26mi
4309 Gilbert Pl Forest Park, GA	4.0	2.0	1660	$1,981	$1.19	6d	1	1.28mi
4241 Hendrix Dr Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,224	$1.17	3d	5	1.33mi
1540 Greenwillow Dr Conley, GA	4.0	2.0	1564	$1,895	$1.21	26d	1	1.34mi
837 Forrest Cir SE Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,845	$1.23	26d	1	1.37mi
4404 Currie Ct Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,595	$1.34	45d	1	1.37mi
575 Springwood Dr Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	45d	1	1.39mi
382 Cologne Dr SE Atlanta, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	0d	1	1.41mi
633 Sandys Ln SE Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,950	$1.48	7d	1	1.44mi
331 Simca St SE Atlanta, GA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	4d	1	1.45mi
4522 Ridge Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,450	$1.23	6d	1	1.45mi
573 Evergreen Ter Unit 2 Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	46d	1	1.46mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,100	$1.26	45d	1	1.49mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	12d	1	1.49mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	3d	1	1.50mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	0d	1	1.50mi
4548 Pine Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	1.0	963	$1,250	$1.30	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-20
   price $179,900
3. 2026-02-24
   price $184,900
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $189,900 New
5. 2025-12-31
   historical
6. 2025-10-02
   price $190,900
7. 2025-09-24
   price $197,900
8. 2025-09-13
   price $202,900
9. 2025-08-26
   listed $209,900 New
10. 2014-02-19
    historical
11. 2014-02-18
    historical
12. 2013-11-15
    price $63,900 Reduced
13. 2013-11-15
    price $63,900
14. 2013-08-30
    listed $69,900 New
15. 2013-08-30
    listed $69,900 Active
16. 2012-05-01
    historical
17. 2012-01-21
    listed $19,900 New
18. 2011-10-23
    price $19,900
19. 2008-05-01
    soldstatus $62,500
20. 2008-02-26
    listed $67,000
21. 2007-06-22
    soldstatus $68,000
22. 2004-10-11
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 1977-06-16
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,413 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,413 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,413
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1300120
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,306
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7006
• State rank: #80 of 174 in GA

Livability — Atlanta

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #919

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlanta, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 629,525
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 16,182
• Household income: $63,189
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 16% White 10% Two or more races 9% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.78%
• Current HPI: 320.1111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+542.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $184,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $189,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $190,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $197,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $202,900 GAMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2014-02-19 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2014-02-18 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2013-11-15 Price Changed $63,900 GAMLS
• 2013-11-15 Price Changed $63,900 FMLS
• 2013-08-30 Listed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2013-08-30 Listed $69,900 FMLS
• 2012-05-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-01-21 Listed $19,900 GAMLS
• 2011-10-23 Price Changed $19,900 GAMLS
• 2008-05-01 Sold (MLS) $62,500 FMLS
• 2008-02-26 Listed $67,000 FMLS
• 2007-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1977-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,413 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.