475 W Depot St · Avinger, TX 75630

$89,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,359 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 310 Days on market

Built 1927 0.50 ac lot $66/sqft · 37% below area Est $142k · 37% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUILT IN 1927 – FULL OF CHARM & CHARACTER This older home is full of uniqueness and possibilities! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a sunroom, and tons of built-ins, it offers warmth and personality throughout. Relax on the inviting front porch with your morning coffee or take advantage of the spacious workshop—perfect for hobbies, a craft space, or a man cave. While the home is in need of some TLC, it has incredible potential to be transformed into a cozy rental, a charming retirement home, or a sought-after Airbnb. Sitting on a corner lot with a chain-link fence, this property offers both convenience and charm—ready for your vision to bring it to life!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Spacious workshop
• Sunroom

Tags

• SUNROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS WORKSHOP
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,080 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Avinger ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #903 of 1,141 in TX (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.54%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,972
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -36.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $28,098
• Equity at exit: $36,699

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $75,426
• Equity at exit: $53,816

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75630

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $352	+0% $326	+5% $301	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $280	+0% $326	+5% $372	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $349	base $326	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 295 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 294 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 293 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 292 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $89,900 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    BUILT IN 1927 – FULL OF CHARM & CHARACTER This older home is full of uniqueness and possibilities! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a sunroom, and tons of built-ins, it offers warmth and personality throughout. Relax on the inviting front porch with your morning coffee or take advantage of the spacious workshop—perfect for hobbies, a craft space, or a man cave. While the home is in need of some TLC, it has incredible potential to be transformed into a cozy rental, a charming retirement home, or a sought-after Airbnb. Sitting on a corner lot with a chain-link fence, this property offers both convenience and charm—ready for your vision to bring it to life!

16. 2026-01-25
    price $94,500 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    BUILT IN 1927 – FULL OF CHARM & CHARACTER This older home is full of uniqueness and possibilities! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a sunroom, and tons of built-ins, it offers warmth and personality throughout. Relax on the inviting front porch with your morning coffee or take advantage of the spacious workshop—perfect for hobbies, a craft space, or a man cave. While the home is in need of some TLC, it has incredible potential to be transformed into a cozy rental, a charming retirement home, or a sought-after Airbnb. Sitting on a corner lot with a chain-link fence, this property offers both convenience and charm—ready for your vision to bring it to life!

17. 2025-08-12
    listed $99,000 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    BUILT IN 1927 – FULL OF CHARM & CHARACTER This older home is full of uniqueness and possibilities! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, a sunroom, and tons of built-ins, it offers warmth and personality throughout. Relax on the inviting front porch with your morning coffee or take advantage of the spacious workshop—perfect for hobbies, a craft space, or a man cave. While the home is in need of some TLC, it has incredible potential to be transformed into a cozy rental, a charming retirement home, or a sought-after Airbnb. Sitting on a corner lot with a chain-link fence, this property offers both convenience and charm—ready for your vision to bring it to life!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$625/yr (+$52/mo · 61.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$628
• After-tax cash flow: $3,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avinger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809090
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,510
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #10932
• State rank: #903 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Avinger

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #19129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avinger, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,693

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,998 people
• By 2030: 29,583 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 28,512 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 27,230 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 24,917 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 21,582 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 17.0% · R 82.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.2pp toward R · 2008: -40.4pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+59.1 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.5 2008: R+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Current HPI: 112.8934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $89,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $94,500 LAAR
• 2025-08-12 Listed $99,000 LAAR

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.