21825 Raven Tree Ct · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1986 9,147 sqft lot $143/sqft · 7% above area Est $248k · 13% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home nestled in the sought-after Cumberland Community neighborhood of Porter, TX. This charming residence boasts a spacious 1,850 square feet, featuring three well-sized bedrooms and two modern bathrooms. The inviting interior is complemented by a generous yard, offering ample space for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the serene surroundings. Situated within a community known for its excellent schools, this home ensures easy access to quality education for children. The Cumberland neighborhood is renowned for its family-friendly atmosphere and convenience, providing quick access to shopping, dining, and entertainment options while maintaining a tranqu

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Home generator
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUS YARD
• HOME GENERATOR
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL PANEL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Cumberland Community Association; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tandem garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1986; Brick, vinyl siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Has additional parcel(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x13); Bedroom on the first floor (11x12); Bedroom on the first floor (11x11)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; One fireplace; Total of 7 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($378/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert Crippen El (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 858 students, 77% FRL); White Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 834 students, 75% FRL); Porter H S (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,209 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 57% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,110
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -13.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18468 Misty Wood Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+1%)	4mo	$222,000	$146	86
18457 Misty Wood	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+1%)	18mo	$255,000	$168	76
18422 Hollow Oaks Cir	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+7%)	11mo	$209,990	$131	71
22065 Ringwood Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,392 (-7%)	6mo	$204,900	$147	69
22038 Soft Pines Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+6%)	14mo	$214,999	$135	62
21689 Holly Leaf Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+15%)	2mo	$278,999	$162	60
8906 Blackwoods Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+8%)	7mo	$349,990	$216	59
8744 Mancos Valley Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (+6%)	11mo	$350,000	$220	54
21608 Anvil Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+13%)	4mo	$235,000	$139	54
21235 Velma Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,532 (+2%)	20mo	$279,000	$182	48
19162 Painted Blvd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+4%)	18mo	$245,500	$157	44
21601 Twitch Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+15%)	10mo	$243,000	$141	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-35,557
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-39,252
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,608/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,095

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18167 Woodsdale Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1608	$1,769	$1.10	2d	1	0.30mi
21625 Hackamore Ct Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,145	$1.22	11d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $215,000 Active 955-char remark
15. 2026-05-11
    historical
16. 2026-01-25
    price $215,000
17. 2025-09-20
    price $225,000
18. 2025-07-15
    price $240,000
19. 2025-05-11
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,608 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,608 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,608
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-11 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,608 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.