3701 S Watson Rd #27 · Buckeye, AZ 85326

$29,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 950 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1980 $31/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, single wide, build in 1980, with an extended patio. Family community, pet friendly. Association includes water, sewer and trash. The home is ideally situated near shopping and dining options, with easy access to Highway 101 for commuting.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Extended patio
• Pet friendly

Tags

• EXTENDED PATIO
• PET FRIENDLY
• NEAR SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 101

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fees include sewer, street maintenance, trash, and water; Lot size source: Assessor; Building area source: Owner
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment applies
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease fee; Land lease fee charged monthly

Exterior

• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Road access via dirt and concrete surfaces
• Construction: Metal siding and steel frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Chain link fencing; Dirt and gravel/stone frontage; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Space for 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Energy-efficient features noted (see remarks); Laminate flooring; Laundry area with additional/unspecified features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other/unspecified features)

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $29,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$70,137) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 56.3% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buckeye Union High School District (4284) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #129 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Youngker High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #206 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 2,099 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 56.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 178.46%
• DSCR: 8.94
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,137
• List price: $29,000
• Delta: -58.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3701 S Watson Rd #27	0.00mi	2/1.5	950 (0%)	0mo	$29,000	$31	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.25×
• Total profit: $67,016
• Equity at exit: $4,324

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.91×
• Total profit: $137,315
• Equity at exit: $2,507

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85326

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $1,208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24085 W Ripple Rd Unit B Buckeye, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	43d	1	0.97mi
23683 W Yuma Rd Buckeye, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,518	$1.47	1d	30	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $29,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $29,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $29,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $29,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $29,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   price $29,000 290-char remark
8. 2026-05-01
   listed $32,900 Active 290-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $14,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,580
• After-tax cash flow: $10,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckeye Union High School District (4284)
• NCES district ID: 0401410
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,182
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7995
• State rank: #129 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 75,359
• Household income: $89,876
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 38% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.00%
• Current HPI: 286.9242
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.92%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) $29,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $29,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $32,900 ARMLS