5818 Village Forest Ct · Houston, TX 77092

$150,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,790 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1976 11 ac lot Est $192k · 22% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The previous Buyer was not qualify for the loan! Townhouse is back on market ! This townhouse has never been flooded ! Beautiful townhouse in the nice and quiet neighborhood! Owner is very well taking care of the house! Interior remodeling like new! Huge living room with romantic fireplace and beautiful ceramic tile floor! New carpet upstairs and in all bedrooms! Large kitchen with new counter top, brand new electric range and view to back yard! Ready to move in !

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Nice patio space
• $50 HOA

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NICE PATIO SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $50 (includes cable TV) administered by Action Prop Management; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces; Additional parking available; Assigned and unassigned parking options
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story home; Faces east; Entry level not specified
• Construction: Built in 1976; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; In-ground gunite pool; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Tub with shower; Kitchen and dining combined; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-83/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 779 students, 97% FRL); Clifton Middle (math 9% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 509 students, 98% FRL); Scarborough H S (math 19% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 750 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,777 (0.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.99%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5801 Lumberdale Rd #76	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,696 (-5%)	8mo	$170,000	$100	54
5801 Lumberdale #207	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,890 (+6%)	8mo	$170,000	$90	54
5801 Lumberdale Rd #74	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,696 (-5%)	11mo	$195,000	$115	52
5800 Lumberdale Rd #106	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	10mo	$130,000	$77	50
5801 Lumberdale Rd #125	0.64mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	11mo	$199,000	$118	46
5801 Lumberdale Rd #199	0.64mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	11mo	$217,500	$129	46
5800 Lumberdale Rd #17	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,558 (-13%)	6mo	$179,000	$115	41
5801 Lumberdale Rd #226	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-13%)	10mo	$175,000	$112	40
5801 Lumberdale Rd #120	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,055 (+15%)	2mo	$218,900	$107	37
5801 Lumberdale Rd #66	0.64mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,558 (-13%)	10mo	$165,000	$106	36
5800 Lumberdale Rd #4	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,055 (+15%)	8mo	$171,126	$83	35
5801 Lumberdale Rd #165	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,055 (+15%)	9mo	$214,000	$104	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-30,267
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-48,183
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77092

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,242/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $148,777

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $36	+0% $-7	+5% $-49	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-86	+0% $-7	+5% $73	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $31	base $-7	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5359 Deep Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,409	$1.15	26d	1	0.35mi
6123 Birchmont Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1879	$2,700	$1.44	45d	1	0.38mi
6200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$1,300	$1.18	4d	11	0.43mi
5131 Spring Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,295	$1.27	26d	1	0.46mi
6230 Rena St Unit 1316407P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1765	$7,148	$4.05	1d	1	0.57mi
6240 Antoine Dr Unit 6273 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,424	$0.96	0d	1	0.66mi
6318 Leaf Arbor Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,250	$1.52	45d	1	0.68mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	24d	1	1.18mi
6506 W 43rd St Unit 1115 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,550	$1.13	45d	1	1.18mi
5503 Bertellis Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	26d	1	1.40mi
4701 W 43rd St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1508	$2,400	$1.59	6d	1	1.44mi
4601 W 43rd St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,395	$1.56	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   remarks 205-char remark
3. 2026-06-08
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,242
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$529
• After-tax cash flow: $446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,938
• Household income: $58,728
• Rent vs Own: 59.4% rent · 40.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1979.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 25% Two or more races 22% Black 11% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.24%
• Current HPI: 300.5572
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.36%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+105.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-12-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-11-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-09-18 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-10-02 Price Changed $61,500 HARMLS
• 2013-10-02 Listed $64,500 HARMLS
• 2012-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-09-26 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2011-05-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-15 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2007-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-04-12 Listed $67,000 HARMLS
• 2006-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-25 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2006-03-01 Listed $71,900 HARMLS
• 2006-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-11-10 Listed $72,900 HARMLS
• 2005-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,242 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.