5414 Burton Chapel Rd · Yanceyville, NC 27302

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1975 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the charm and potential of this brick ranch situated on a spacious . 42-acre lot -- all for under $200K! With some TLC, this home can truly shine and become your own personal retreat. Inside, you'll find hardwood floors, a spacious living room, plus a cozy den featuring a wood stove for additional gathering space. The kitchen opens to the dining area and offers plenty of cabinet and counter space, making family meals and entertaining easy. All bedrooms are generously sized and feature hardwood flooring. A separate laundry room adds convenience to everyday living. Need extra storage? You're covered with a large 24x12 storage shed -- perfect for tools, hobbies, or holiday decorations. T

Key facts

• Cozy den
• Wood stove
• Spacious lot

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• SPACIOUS LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COZY DEN
• WOOD STOVE
• KITCHEN OPENS TO DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport; Open parking; 2 covered carport spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Concrete driveway/parking surface
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s)/storage on property; Lot approximately 0.42 acres; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Yanceyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caswell County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #146 of 178 in NC (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 443 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 54 units permitted in Caswell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caswell County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,447 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,225
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-395
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27302

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 443
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $564/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $564 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,068/yr (+$89/mo · 189.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$564
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47
• After-tax cash flow: $3,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caswell County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,172
• Composite: 25.44/100
• National rank: #7452
• State rank: #146 of 178 in NC

Livability — Yanceyville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #9189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 35,418
• Household income: $79,819
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1122.0

Population outlook (Caswell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,389 people
• By 2030: 20,297 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 17,848 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 15,578 · -27.2%
• By 2075: 11,939 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 8,930 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caswell

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.4% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: 3.1pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+18.5 2016: R+11.5 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.06%
• Current HPI: 208.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $199,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $564 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.