5219 Chiricahua Trl · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take in breathtaking Dona Ana Mountain views right from your front porch! This 3- bedroom, 3-bath home offers 2,016 sq ft of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.37- acre lot. Inside, you'll find both a large living room and a separate family room, providing plenty of space to relax or entertain. Enjoy outdoor living with a front deck perfect for sunset views and a screened-in back porch for peaceful mornings. The property features desert landscaping, mature trees, refrigerated A/C, ceiling fans, and a newly installed septic system. A standout feature is the detached workshop complete with its own bathroom running water, and electricity-perfect for an art studio, hobby space, or creativ

Key facts

• Front porch
• Detached workshop
• Desert landscaping

Tags

• DONA ANA MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• DESERT LANDSCAPING
• MATURE TREES
• DETACHED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-story; Double-wide manufactured/mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Property has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Double-pane windows; One fireplace located in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,333 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,893
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $14,080
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $633/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,564

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5475 Valle Alegre Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1464	$2,000	$1.37	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 762-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $209,000 Active 762-char remark
3. 2022-12-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,039/yr (+$87/mo · 164.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$633
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$78
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $3,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-26 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-26 Relisted — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-11 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-24 Listed $209,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $633 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.