1153 W 22nd St · Erie, PA 16502

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1914 3,920 sqft lot $76/sqft · at area comps Est $103k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located on Erie’s west side! Step inside to find fresh new flooring and modern paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The spacious layout offers plenty of room for family and guests, with two full bathrooms for added convenience. Make the 3rd floor your own oasis with the potential of a 3rd full bathroom!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1914
• Listed 196 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $100k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,926
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -2.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1145 W 25th St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (0%)	2mo	$130,000	$98	80
1117 W 21st St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,246 (-6%)	1mo	$118,900	$95	77
1021 W 29th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (-5%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	63
1617 Liberty St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,332 (+1%)	1mo	$76,000	$57	61
1143 W 31st St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-2%)	2mo	$175,000	$135	60
1115 W 25th St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,126 (-15%)	2mo	$169,900	$151	56
1316 W 31st St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	1mo	$169,900	$144	49
2618 Hazel St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,226 (-7%)	1mo	$123,450	$101	49
2946 Poplar St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,254 (-5%)	1mo	$172,000	$137	48
933 W 27th St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,504 (+14%)	2mo	$132,500	$88	47
1112 W 29th St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (-14%)	1mo	$164,900	$145	47
816 W 28th St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	1mo	$159,900	$136	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-5,872
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $8,249
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,414/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	0.54mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	44d	1	0.64mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	0.68mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.91mi
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	44d	1	1.03mi
1257 W 6th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	1.09mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	1.11mi
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	1.28mi
305 Cascade St Unit 305 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	1.33mi
446 W 6th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	1160	$2,260	$1.95	44d	1	1.41mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located on Erie’s west side! Step inside to find fresh new flooring and modern paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The spacious layout offers plenty of room for family and guests, with two full bathrooms for added convenience. Make the 3rd floor your own oasis with the potential of a 3rd full bathroom!

2. 2026-04-28
   price $99,900 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located on Erie’s west side! Step inside to find fresh new flooring and modern paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The spacious layout offers plenty of room for family and guests, with two full bathrooms for added convenience. Make the 3rd floor your own oasis with the potential of a 3rd full bathroom!

3. 2026-04-21
   price $109,900 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located on Erie’s west side! Step inside to find fresh new flooring and modern paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The spacious layout offers plenty of room for family and guests, with two full bathrooms for added convenience. Make the 3rd floor your own oasis with the potential of a 3rd full bathroom!

4. 2026-02-27
   price $119,900 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located on Erie’s west side! Step inside to find fresh new flooring and modern paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The spacious layout offers plenty of room for family and guests, with two full bathrooms for added convenience. Make the 3rd floor your own oasis with the potential of a 3rd full bathroom!

5. 2025-10-28
   listed $129,900 Active 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Welcome to this updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located on Erie’s west side! Step inside to find fresh new flooring and modern paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The spacious layout offers plenty of room for family and guests, with two full bathrooms for added convenience. Make the 3rd floor your own oasis with the potential of a 3rd full bathroom!

6. 2025-05-05
   price $124,000
7. 2025-01-29
   listed $140,000 Active
8. 2024-06-25
   status Pending
9. 2024-06-03
   price $95,000
10. 2024-05-14
    price $100,000
11. 2024-03-01
    listed $123,000 Active
12. 2023-09-18
    price $100,000
13. 2023-08-01
    listed $88,000 Active
14. 2023-05-11
    price $88,000
15. 2023-02-16
    price $90,000
16. 2023-01-13
    listed $100,000 Active
17. 2019-04-22
    soldstatus $47,000
18. 2019-04-19
    soldstatus $47,000
19. 2018-03-26
    listed $43,500
20. 2003-08-15
    soldstatus $38,000
21. 2000-12-28
    soldstatus $30,500
22. 1980-02-07
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,414 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,414 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,414
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $1,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+354.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $99,900 GEBOR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $109,900 GEBOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $119,900 GEBOR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $129,900 GEBOR
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $124,000 GEBOR
• 2025-01-29 Listed $140,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-25 Pending — GEBOR
• 2024-06-03 Price Changed $95,000 GEBOR
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $100,000 GEBOR
• 2024-03-01 Listed $123,000 GEBOR
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $100,000 GEBOR
• 2023-08-01 Listed $88,000 GEBOR
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $88,000 GEBOR
• 2023-02-16 Price Changed $90,000 GEBOR
• 2023-01-13 Listed $100,000 GEBOR
• 2019-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-19 Sold (MLS) $47,000 GEBOR
• 2018-03-26 Listed $43,500 GEBOR
• 2003-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records
• 1980-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,414 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.