4509 Lauesen Ave · Moose Creek, AK 99705

$245,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1977 1.06 ac lot $108/sqft · 17% below area Est $296k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large single family home with large opportunity! This house sits on over an acre corner lot, with a spacious yard! The house has been recently updated with new boiler systems and new roof in 2023. The upstairs has been recently remodeled with new flooring and fresh paint. The downstairs is unfinished and ready for so much possibility. Looking for a new owner that sees the vision and potential for making this house a home. In addition, this house has a great arctic entry space, a beautiful rock fireplace and a large deck.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• New flooring
• New boiler systems

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• NEW BOILER SYSTEMS
• NEW ROOF
• REMODELED UPSTAIRS
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#155 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing A-, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,721/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.65%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,750
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -17.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4520 Lauesen Ave	0.06mi	3/3.0	2,040 (-10%)	14mo	$389,900	$191	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $96,755
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $290,445
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,652/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$991
• Net cashflow: $1,983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,211

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4619 Lauesen Ave Unit B North Pole, AK	3.0	2.0	1600	$6,500	$4.06	44d	1	0.33mi
4619 Lauesen Ave Unit A North Pole, AK	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	44d	1	0.33mi
3475 Hope St Unit 1 North Pole, AK	4.0	2.0	1600	$10,500	$6.56	44d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $245,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-01-31
   status Active 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Large single family home with large opportunity! This house sits on over an acre corner lot, with a spacious yard! The house has been recently updated with new boiler systems and new roof in 2023. The upstairs has been recently remodeled with new flooring and fresh paint. The downstairs is unfinished and ready for so much possibility. Looking for a new owner that sees the vision and potential for making this house a home. In addition, this house has a great arctic entry space, a beautiful rock fireplace and a large deck.

3. 2026-01-31
   price $245,000 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Large single family home with large opportunity! This house sits on over an acre corner lot, with a spacious yard! The house has been recently updated with new boiler systems and new roof in 2023. The upstairs has been recently remodeled with new flooring and fresh paint. The downstairs is unfinished and ready for so much possibility. Looking for a new owner that sees the vision and potential for making this house a home. In addition, this house has a great arctic entry space, a beautiful rock fireplace and a large deck.

4. 2025-10-27
   status Active 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Large single family home with large opportunity! This house sits on over an acre corner lot, with a spacious yard! The house has been recently updated with new boiler systems and new roof in 2023. The upstairs has been recently remodeled with new flooring and fresh paint. The downstairs is unfinished and ready for so much possibility. Looking for a new owner that sees the vision and potential for making this house a home. In addition, this house has a great arctic entry space, a beautiful rock fireplace and a large deck.

5. 2025-10-13
   historical 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Large single family home with large opportunity! This house sits on over an acre corner lot, with a spacious yard! The house has been recently updated with new boiler systems and new roof in 2023. The upstairs has been recently remodeled with new flooring and fresh paint. The downstairs is unfinished and ready for so much possibility. Looking for a new owner that sees the vision and potential for making this house a home. In addition, this house has a great arctic entry space, a beautiful rock fireplace and a large deck.

6. 2025-10-01
   listed $275,000 Active 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Large single family home with large opportunity! This house sits on over an acre corner lot, with a spacious yard! The house has been recently updated with new boiler systems and new roof in 2023. The upstairs has been recently remodeled with new flooring and fresh paint. The downstairs is unfinished and ready for so much possibility. Looking for a new owner that sees the vision and potential for making this house a home. In addition, this house has a great arctic entry space, a beautiful rock fireplace and a large deck.

7. 2021-10-08
   soldstatus 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Large single family home on a corner lot close to both North Pole and Eielson AFB. Home features arctic entry and large open living room and a fireplace make for a cozy atmosphere. Three bedrooms on main level with kitchen and eat in area. The basement if full sized and could be finished to double the size of the home! Home is scheduled to have water connected this summer. This is a fantastic opportunity to still purchase a home that will grow in sweat equity value even in a hot market. Home could be worked on while living there, at your own leisure. Showing to begin Monday, May 17th.

8. 2021-09-10
   soldstatus
9. 2021-05-14
   listed $239,900 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Large single family home on a corner lot close to both North Pole and Eielson AFB. Home features arctic entry and large open living room and a fireplace make for a cozy atmosphere. Three bedrooms on main level with kitchen and eat in area. The basement if full sized and could be finished to double the size of the home! Home is scheduled to have water connected this summer. This is a fantastic opportunity to still purchase a home that will grow in sweat equity value even in a hot market. Home could be worked on while living there, at your own leisure. Showing to begin Monday, May 17th.

10. 2007-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,652
• − Insurance: −$1,892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,532
• − Management: −$4,532
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $21,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,085
• After-tax cash flow: $18,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Moose Creek

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #23762

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moose Creek, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Relisted — GFBR
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $245,000 GFBR
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — GFBR
• 2025-10-13 Delisted — GFBR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $275,000 GFBR
• 2021-10-08 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2021-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-14 Listed $239,900 GFBR
• 2007-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,652 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.