312 Royal Pond Cir · Flowood, MS 39232

$384,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2020 9,147 sqft lot $185/sqft · 12% below area Est $435k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to your new home in the highly desirable gated community of Kensington. Greeted by a grand 12-foot entryway and a spacious front porch, the warmth of this home starts the moment you arrive--complete with freshly re-stained shutters and ring flood lights for added security. 12-foot ceilings in the living room create an open, airy feel, while modern conveniences shine with an Alexa-controlled HVAC system and TV mounts that remain in the living room and on the outdoor patio. Large master suite with wood-stained trey ceiling flows into a spa-like bath with a deep soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and an enormous walk-in closet featuring custom built-ins and a full-length mirror. A front guest bedroom mirrors the vaulted elegance, while the back bedroom boasts brand-new carpet for fresh comfort. Generous closets and storage spaces throughout the home go well above average--keeping everything organized and clutter-free. An extra-large floored attic provides even more room for seasonal items or hobbies. Step outside to your low-maintenance haven: an automatic sprinkler system and full gutters keep the grounds pristine, while the 2-car garage is thoughtfully equipped with shoe storage, pegboard, industrial shelving. Seller is leaving concrete paint and sealer for new buyer--perfect for personalizing your space or that future back patio upgrade. The gated community of Kensington's exclusive amenities include a sparkling community pool, a beautiful clubhouse, a scenic lake for family outings, and tree-lined sidewalks perfect for evening strolls or morning jogs.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Beautiful clubhouse
• Scenic lake

Tags

• 12 FOOT ENTRYWAY
• ALEXA CONTROLLED HVAC SYSTEM
• AUTOMATIC SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BEAUTIFUL CLUBHOUSE
• SCENIC LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-772 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (44.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,407 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.62%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,870
• List price: $384,000
• Delta: -11.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Royal Pond Cir	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,143 (+3%)	2mo	$399,000	$186	91
1106 Old Court Xing	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,105 (+1%)	3mo	$409,900	$195	80
410 Duke Ct	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,164 (+4%)	4mo	$390,000	$180	80
1014 Kensington Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,107 (+2%)	8mo	$399,900	$190	76
134 Palace Xing	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-2%)	1mo	$394,900	$195	75
913 Brunswick Ct	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,204 (+6%)	0mo	$418,760	$190	74
1012 Kensington Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,102 (+1%)	6mo	$389,900	$185	74
1125 Old Court Xing	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,249 (+8%)	1mo	$409,000	$182	73
136 Palace Xing	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,259 (+9%)	1mo	$439,900	$195	72
537 Wales Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,180 (+5%)	6mo	$397,000	$182	72
1205 Old Court Xing	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,150 (+4%)	6mo	$408,500	$190	70
1227 Old Ct Xing	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,387 (+15%)	8mo	$454,000	$190	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.79% appreciation · 6.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-38,100
• Equity at exit: $126,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $5,223
• Equity at exit: $165,637

Cash invested: $107,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39232

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,014
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,226/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,092

Max offer price $247,547

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-555	-5% $-664	+0% $-772	+5% $-881	+10% $-990
Rent	-10% $-939	-5% $-856	+0% $-772	+5% $-689	+10% $-605
Rate	-1.0pp $-579	-0.5pp $-675	base $-772	+0.5pp $-872	+1.0pp $-973

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,000
• Closing costs: $11,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $384,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $384,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $384,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $384,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $384,000 1623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1623 chars)

    Welcome home to your new home in the highly desirable gated community of Kensington. Greeted by a grand 12-foot entryway and a spacious front porch, the warmth of this home starts the moment you arrive--complete with freshly re-stained shutters and ring flood lights for added security. 12-foot ceilings in the living room create an open, airy feel, while modern conveniences shine with an Alexa-controlled HVAC system and TV mounts that remain in the living room and on the outdoor patio. Large master suite with wood-stained trey ceiling flows into a spa-like bath with a deep soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and an enormous walk-in closet featuring custom built-ins and a full-length mirror. A front guest bedroom mirrors the vaulted elegance, while the back bedroom boasts brand-new carpet for fresh comfort. Generous closets and storage spaces throughout the home go well above average--keeping everything organized and clutter-free. An extra-large floored attic provides even more room for seasonal items or hobbies. Step outside to your low-maintenance haven: an automatic sprinkler system and full gutters keep the grounds pristine, while the 2-car garage is thoughtfully equipped with shoe storage, pegboard, industrial shelving. Seller is leaving concrete paint and sealer for new buyer--perfect for personalizing your space or that future back patio upgrade. The gated community of Kensington's exclusive amenities include a sparkling community pool, a beautiful clubhouse, a scenic lake for family outings, and tree-lined sidewalks perfect for evening strolls or morning jogs.

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $390,288 Active 1623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1623 chars)

    Welcome home to your new home in the highly desirable gated community of Kensington. Greeted by a grand 12-foot entryway and a spacious front porch, the warmth of this home starts the moment you arrive--complete with freshly re-stained shutters and ring flood lights for added security. 12-foot ceilings in the living room create an open, airy feel, while modern conveniences shine with an Alexa-controlled HVAC system and TV mounts that remain in the living room and on the outdoor patio. Large master suite with wood-stained trey ceiling flows into a spa-like bath with a deep soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and an enormous walk-in closet featuring custom built-ins and a full-length mirror. A front guest bedroom mirrors the vaulted elegance, while the back bedroom boasts brand-new carpet for fresh comfort. Generous closets and storage spaces throughout the home go well above average--keeping everything organized and clutter-free. An extra-large floored attic provides even more room for seasonal items or hobbies. Step outside to your low-maintenance haven: an automatic sprinkler system and full gutters keep the grounds pristine, while the 2-car garage is thoughtfully equipped with shoe storage, pegboard, industrial shelving. Seller is leaving concrete paint and sealer for new buyer--perfect for personalizing your space or that future back patio upgrade. The gated community of Kensington's exclusive amenities include a sparkling community pool, a beautiful clubhouse, a scenic lake for family outings, and tree-lined sidewalks perfect for evening strolls or morning jogs.

18. 2020-05-29
    soldstatus 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    New Construction in the gated neighborhood of Kensington! Four bedrooms, 3 baths, pantry, brick fireplace, wood floors, stainless steel appliances, and granite throughout. Beautiful new home with a sprinkler system and tankless hot water heater as well. Call today for a private showing! 100% USDA Financing available to approved applicants!

19. 2020-02-14
    listed $299,990 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    New Construction in the gated neighborhood of Kensington! Four bedrooms, 3 baths, pantry, brick fireplace, wood floors, stainless steel appliances, and granite throughout. Beautiful new home with a sprinkler system and tankless hot water heater as well. Call today for a private showing! 100% USDA Financing available to approved applicants!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,226 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,226 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,510
• − Property taxes: −$3,226
• − Insurance: −$1,920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$11,171
• Taxable loss: −$16,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,964
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowood, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 9,222
• Household income: $82,931
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 731.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Current HPI: 163.9292
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+28.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $384,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-06 Listed $390,288 MLSU
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-02-14 Listed $299,990 MLSU

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,226 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.