104 Calcite Rd #3 · Kyle, TX 78640

$199,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $135/sqft · 35% below area Est $306k · 35% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available NOW! There’s no shortage of space with an upstairs loft and large storage closet. Secondary bedrooms are connected by a jack-and-jill bathroom. Waterstone Village is a beautiful townhome community now selling in Kyle, TX, just 25 miles south of Austin and eight miles north of San Marcos in the celebrated Hays CISD. Explore shopping, restaurants, and entertainment located at Kyle Marketplace, Kyle Crossing, and the San Marcos Premium Outlets. There is no shortage of activities for the outdoor lover. Spend the day fishing at Lake Kyle or enjoy a round of golf at Plum Creek Golf Course. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 240 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,566
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -25.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
278 Texas Agate Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	4mo	$328,990	$223	86
175 Fossil Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	3mo	$304,990	$206	85
318 Texas Agate Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-0%)	6mo	$308,990	$209	83
124 Alpha	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-1%)	2mo	$213,000	$145	73
473 Goddard	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-0%)	5mo	$274,900	$186	64
113 Wallops	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-9%)	0mo	$237,500	$177	59
243 Discovery	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-4%)	3mo	$239,900	$168	58
291 Texas Agate Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	3mo	$314,990	$187	57
257 Fossil Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+14%)	0mo	$283,000	$167	55
155 Fossil Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	7mo	$323,220	$191	55
221 Alpha	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+12%)	4mo	$260,000	$156	54
321 Texas Agate Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+14%)	7mo	$320,235	$190	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,468
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,048
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 50 active · 53 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,490 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 193 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2406
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,204/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $199,990

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $390	-5% $333	+0% $276	+5% $220	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $201	+0% $276	+5% $352	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $327	base $276	+0.5pp $224	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 Cinnabar Ln #4 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1479	$1,699	$1.15	9d	1	0.11mi
164 Cinnabar Ln #1 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,750	$1.02	42d	1	0.11mi
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,995	$1.18	9d	1	0.18mi
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,100	$1.24	63d	1	0.18mi
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	100d	1	0.34mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	107d	1	0.42mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	100d	1	0.46mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,895	$1.29	82d	1	0.46mi
137 Rafe Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,800	$1.23	23d	1	0.53mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,775	$2.00	6d	84	0.57mi
541 Alpha Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,795	$1.09	42d	1	0.62mi
541 Alpha Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,795	$1.09	56d	1	0.62mi
340 Kenai Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,720	$1.49	28d	1	0.65mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	112d	1	0.66mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,746	$1.18	28d	1	0.66mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,890	$1.28	94d	1	0.66mi
265 Garner Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,700	$1.74	28d	1	0.67mi
351 Musgrav Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,895	$1.17	56d	1	0.68mi
309 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1710	$1,800	$1.05	23d	1	0.72mi
364 Leonardo Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,595	$1.27	28d	1	0.73mi
184 Unity Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,000	$1.17	139d	1	0.76mi
157 Mammoth Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,795	$1.12	88d	1	0.79mi
160 Atlantis Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,795	$1.17	9d	1	0.80mi
230 Olympic Park Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	9d	1	0.82mi
240 Sambre St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,625	$1.35	88d	1	0.82mi
135 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,815	$1.18	23d	1	0.82mi
298 Denali Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$2,150	$1.21	67d	1	0.83mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,850	$1.25	9d	1	0.83mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	139d	1	0.83mi
112 Ames Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,695	$1.31	9d	1	0.84mi
149 Biscayne Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	113d	1	0.85mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	119d	1	0.85mi
446 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,699	$1.38	42d	1	0.85mi
127 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	9d	1	0.86mi
237 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,900	$1.29	83d	1	0.89mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	108d	1	0.93mi
627 Atlantis Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,750	$1.14	9d	1	0.94mi
196 Goddard Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	9d	1	0.95mi
121 Yellowstone Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,200	$1.28	119d	1	0.96mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	139d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $199,990 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $199,990 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $199,990 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $199,990 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $199,990 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $228,990 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $228,990 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $228,990 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $228,990 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $228,990 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $228,990 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $228,990 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $228,990 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $228,990 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $228,990 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $228,990 Active 217 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $228,990 Active 216 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $228,990 Active 215 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $228,990 Active 214 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $228,990 Active 213 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $228,990 Active 211 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $228,990 Active 210 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $228,990 Active 209 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $228,990 Active 208 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $228,990 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $228,990 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $228,990 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $228,990 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on marketlisting id $228,990 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $228,990 Active 207 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $228,990 Active 206 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $228,990 Active 205 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $228,990 Active 204 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $228,990 Active 202 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $228,990 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $228,990 Active 200 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $228,990 Active 199 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $228,990 Active 197 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $228,990 Active 196 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $228,990 Active 195 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $228,990 Active 194 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $228,990 Active 191 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $228,990 Active 189 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $228,990 Active 188 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $228,990 Active 186 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $228,990 Active 184 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $228,990 Active 183 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $228,990 Active 182 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $228,990 Active 181 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,456/yr (+$205/mo · 204.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,204
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $26
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new, energy-efficient home in Waterstone Village is move-in ready with modern finishes and a prime location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modern unit improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blanco Vista El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Laura B Wallace Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $228,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $288,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Listed $289,190 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $289,190 Zillow

Property tax history

+30.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,204 · +30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.