823 N Ellis St · Giddings, TX 78942

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,329 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1953 0.26 ac lot $143/sqft · 20% below area Est $242k · 22% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House is being sold 'AS IS' and is in need of TLC. House has been vacant for several years. Great as a rental property.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.4% in Giddings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#751 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Giddings ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #270 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,322
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -21.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
751 N Burleson St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+2%)	3mo	$185,000	$137	76
870 N Waco St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+4%)	24mo	$269,000	$194	61
1081 N Navarro St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+12%)	11mo	$315,000	$212	58
401 Clark Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+14%)	6mo	$333,900	$220	49
410 N Grimes St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-10%)	22mo	$199,900	$168	30
310 S Caldwell St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+14%)	23mo	$300,000	$199	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,089
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,267
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78942

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,901/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,667

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $158	+0% $105	+5% $51	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $34	+0% $105	+5% $176	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $153	base $105	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
199 Cactus St Giddings, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	18d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $190,000 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    House is being sold 'AS IS' and is in need of TLC. House has been vacant for several years. Great as a rental property.

16. 2026-04-11
    price $195,000 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    House is being sold 'AS IS' and is in need of TLC. House has been vacant for several years. Great as a rental property.

17. 2026-02-12
    listed $199,000 Active 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    House is being sold 'AS IS' and is in need of TLC. House has been vacant for several years. Great as a rental property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,901 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,901
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $1,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Giddings ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820640
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,580
• Composite: 38.32/100
• National rank: #4226
• State rank: #270 of 826 in TX

Livability — Giddings

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #13837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Giddings, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,858

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,796 people
• By 2030: 18,082 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 18,377 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 16,005 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 13,413 · -24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.5% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+46.3 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.66%
• Current HPI: 205.1633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $190,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $199,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,901 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.