8865 E Baseline Rd #103 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition Est $146k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Fully furnished, thoughtfully updated, and ready for the Arizona lifestyle you've been dreaming about! Located in Monte Vista Village Resort, this charming 2001 Cavco offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, approximately 960 square feet, and a comfortable open-concept design that lives larger than expected. The home sits on a larger-sized lot for the historic section, giving you added breathing room along with a large covered carport, storage shed, and low-maintenance desert landscaping. Inside, vaulted ceilings and natural light create an inviting first impression, while the updated kitchen steals the show with refreshed cabinetry, attractive countertops, stylish backsplash, black hardware, genero

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Updated kitchen
• Indoor laundry

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,039 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool and heated community spa; Pickleball courts; Tennis courts; Fitness center; Community media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Security guard; Gated community; Guarded entry
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Front irrigation; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in microwave; Non-laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Skylights; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.13%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #715	0.09mi	2/2.0	998 (+4%)	3mo	$108,000	$108	87
110 S Ellsworth Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0	906 (-6%)	0mo	$192,000	$212	77
8865 E Baseline Rd #1416	0.05mi	1/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	17mo	$67,000	$73	73
8865 E Baseline Rd #531	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+8%)	16mo	$168,000	$163	72
8865 E Baseline Rd #446	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+6%)	22mo	$173,000	$170	69
8865 E Baseline Rd #621	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,054 (+10%)	19mo	$160,000	$152	66
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 149B	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$235,000	$223	65
8865 E Baseline Rd #1207	0.09mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,085 (+13%)	4mo	$45,000	$41	64
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 129B	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,088 (+13%)	7mo	$110,000	$101	55
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 157B	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	13mo	$325,000	$308	55
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #180	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$105,000	$99	54
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #215	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,006 (+5%)	11mo	$125,000	$124	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $44,539
• Equity at exit: $36,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $101,339
• Equity at exit: $50,226

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $771	-5% $737	+0% $702	+5% $668	+10% $633
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $633	+0% $702	+5% $772	+10% $842
Rate	-1.0pp $753	-0.5pp $728	base $702	+0.5pp $676	+1.0pp $650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	20d	1	0.05mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	7d	1	0.05mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.09mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	45d	1	0.17mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	45d	1	0.35mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	26d	1	0.35mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	16d	1	0.35mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,745	$1.50	0d	12	0.66mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	0.74mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	26d	1	0.74mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	7d	1	0.81mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	45d	1	0.89mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	26d	1	0.89mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	5d	11	0.89mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,526	$2.70	0d	1	1.01mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	23d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-24
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,745
• After-tax cash flow: $6,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished and updated manufactured home in Monte Vista Village Resort is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a comfortable open-concept design and is ready for the Arizona lifestyle.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both upgrading ceiling fans — modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics
• Both replacing blinds with modern shades — modern shades improve light control and aesthetics
• Both upgrading kitchen appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both upgrading bathroom fixtures — newer fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading ceiling fans — modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics ↑
• Both replacing blinds with modern shades — modern shades improve light control and aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading kitchen appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading bathroom fixtures — newer fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $99,900 ARMLS