2224 Medina Rd · Celina, TX 75009

$326,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · Land public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot Garage $170/sqft · 11% below area Est $366k · 11% under $143/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $327k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $259,365 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,499
• List price: $326,999
• Delta: -10.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2233 Whitney Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (+2%)	2mo	$341,589	$173	88
2232 Medina Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,083 (+8%)	2mo	$352,999	$169	84
2236 Medina Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,083 (+8%)	1mo	$352,999	$169	84
2225 Medina Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,083 (+8%)	2mo	$348,999	$168	84
2234 Whitney Rd	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,177 (+13%)	2mo	$412,999	$190	70
2517 Greenbelt Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,085 (+8%)	1mo	$315,000	$151	68
1613 Buchanan Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+16%)	2mo	$366,999	$165	66
1412 Gibbons Creek Ct	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,371 (+23%)	2mo	$464,999	$196	66
1916 Beeflower St	0.92mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (-3%)	1mo	$379,355	$203	54
3108 Buckeye St	0.86mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (-8%)	1mo	$338,835	$190	46
1505 Buck Trl	0.93mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,070 (+7%)	2mo	$387,515	$187	45
1920 Beeflower St	0.92mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,309 (+20%)	0mo	$436,261	$189	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-67,811
• Equity at exit: $48,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-97,782
• Equity at exit: $28,273

Cash invested: $91,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,016/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,737

Max offer price $307,024

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $-21	+0% $-113	+5% $-206	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-216	+0% $-113	+5% $-11	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-30	base $-113	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,750
• Closing costs: $9,810
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2229 Medina Rd Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	3d	1	0.05mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	0d	1	0.13mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,000	$1.25	65d	1	0.13mi
8110 Rawhide Rd Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2218	$3,000	$1.35	0d	1	0.21mi
1421 Marcella Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$2,395	$1.12	134d	1	0.37mi
2504 Clyde Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2087	$2,100	$1.01	9d	1	0.48mi
2008 Winnsboro Ave Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1973	$2,300	$1.17	133d	1	0.48mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	140d	1	0.80mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	184d	1	0.88mi
17405 W FM 455 Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2078	$3,500	$1.68	3d	1	0.90mi
1916 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,550	$1.37	0d	1	0.92mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	184d	1	0.95mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,100	$1.48	0d	1	0.96mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,100	$1.48	70d	1	0.96mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; annual fee of $1,721, including management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: City sewer and water
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Construction: Built in 2026; new construction, incompleteBrick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven, electric range, gas oven, gas range
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet, vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsPrimary ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $326,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $326,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $326,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $326,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $326,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $326,999 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $331,999 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $331,999 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $331,999 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $331,999 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $331,999 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $331,999 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $331,999 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $331,999 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $331,999 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $331,999 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $331,999 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $331,999 Active 6 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $331,999 Active 5 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $331,999 Active 4 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $331,999 Active 3 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $331,999 Active 2 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    remarks 617-char remark
24. 2026-10-16
    pricedays on marketlisting id $331,999 Active 1 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $351,999 Active 114 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $351,999 Active 113 DOM

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $351,999 Active 112 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $351,999 Active 111 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $351,999 Active 110 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $351,999 Active 109 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $351,999 Active 108 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $351,999 Active 107 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $351,999 Active 106 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $351,999 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $351,999 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $351,999 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $351,999 Active 102 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $351,999 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $351,999 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $351,999 Active 99 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $351,999 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $351,999 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $351,999 Active 96 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $351,999 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $351,999 Active 94 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $351,999 Active 93 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $351,999 Active 92 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $351,999 Active 91 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $351,999 Active 90 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $351,999 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,016 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,984 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,968/yr (+$331/mo · 196.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,317
• − Property taxes: −$2,016
• − Insurance: −$1,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,490
• − Management: −$2,490
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$9,513
• Taxable loss: −$7,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,645–$28,935 screening

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. However, some cosmetic updates such as painting the exterior walls and cleaning the gutters can improve its curb appeal and increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Cleaning the gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the kitchen appliances — Updating the kitchen appliances can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the bathrooms — Updating the bathrooms can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; annual fee of $1,721, including management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: City sewer and water
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Construction: Built in 2026; new construction, incompleteBrick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven, electric range, gas oven, gas range
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet, vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsPrimary ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-15 Price Changed $331,999 Zillow
• 2026-10-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-10-15 Listed $331,999 NTREIS
• 2026-08-21 Price Changed $339,999 Zillow
• 2026-07-31 Price Changed $341,999 Zillow
• 2026-07-26 Price Changed $344,999 Zillow
• 2026-07-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-22 Price Changed $345,999 Zillow
• 2026-07-12 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-05 Price Changed $348,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-24 Price Changed $351,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-24 Listed $351,999 NTREIS
• 2026-06-21 Listed $396,999 Zillow