27006 Turtle Vista Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$362,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $391k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a spacious design made for modern lifestyles. On the first floor, an open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room for seamless entertaining and multitasking, and the luxe owner's suite and a secondary bedroom are tucked away at the back of the home. Two additional secondary bedrooms are located on the second floor, along with a versatile flex space and game room.

Key facts

• Versatile flex space
• Luxe owner's suite
• Game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• VERSATILE FLEX SPACE
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 27006 Turtle Vista Dr, Katy TX 77493; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $362,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Willow II plan)
• Exterior features: 2,400 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Willow II); New construction (Spec inventory)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $363k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $291,990 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27018 Turtle Vista Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5	2,400 (0%)	0mo	$411,990	$172	99
27303 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,340 (-2%)	0mo	$357,330	$153	82
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,134 (-11%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	72
27334 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,201 (-8%)	0mo	$357,990	$163	70
27534 Crystalline Sage Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,294 (-4%)	1mo	$349,990	$153	67
27322 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-8%)	1mo	$379,900	$171	64
6410 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+0%)	1mo	$398,990	$166	62
6018 Bella Breeze Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,294 (-4%)	0mo	$349,990	$153	62
27507 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-10%)	0mo	$364,990	$168	62
27723 Oasis Ridge Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,294 (-4%)	0mo	$375,990	$164	59
6418 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	0mo	$299,490	$132	51
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-10%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-80,187
• Equity at exit: $54,123

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-119,268
• Equity at exit: $31,385

Cash invested: $101,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,904
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$454 /mo · $5,445/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,175

Max offer price $333,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-76	+0% $-202	+5% $-327	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-317	+0% $-202	+5% $-86	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-109	base $-202	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,748
• Closing costs: $10,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.33mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	0.34mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.38mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	0.40mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	13d	1	0.52mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	2d	25	0.53mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	2d	1	0.67mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	0.73mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	0.78mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	25d	1	0.82mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	0.89mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	0.91mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.92mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	0.92mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	0.96mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.02mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	1.09mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.11mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	44d	1	1.12mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.13mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	1.13mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.14mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	1.17mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	1.17mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.18mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	44d	1	1.23mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	44d	1	1.29mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	2d	16	1.33mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	11d	1	1.39mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	1.39mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,333
• − Property taxes: −$5,445
• − Insurance: −$1,815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,803
• − Management: −$2,803
• − Depreciation: −$10,560
• Taxable loss: −$8,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious open-concept floorplan and modern design. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting and modern
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting and modern ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B