37286 Canton Way · Caliente, CA 93518

$191,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1989 20 ac lot ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell manufactured home and mobile home sitting on 20 acres tucked in the mountains of Twin Oaks! Property features include a stainless stove, ceiling fans, laundry room, water softener system, shared well, with the roof being installed approximately 9 years ago. Expand your living space and relax on the extended covered porch with breathtaking mountain and valley views! Detached over-sized shop has power and water at the exterior, perfect for storing vehicles, ATVs, tools and more. Extra storage space with three sheds, all with electricity, one can be used as a bonus room, equipped with a ceiling fan. Great opportunity to own two structures on one parcel in a private gated community. Located just off of the paved road for easy travels. Cash offers preferred. Call today for more information!

Key facts

• Stainless stove
• Laundry room
• 20.37 acre lot

Tags

• STAINLESS STOVE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• EXTENDED COVERED PORCH
• MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY VIEWS
• DETACHED OVER-SIZED SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Piute Mountain Elementary (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,571 statewide, top 80%, 74 students, 70% FRL); Foothill High (reading 77%, 2,045 students, 90% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kern High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,866 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,827
• Equity at exit: $76,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $27,315
• Equity at exit: $110,615

Cash invested: $53,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93518

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,004
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,788/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $147,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-192	+0% $-247	+5% $-301	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-296	+0% $-247	+5% $-197	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-198	base $-247	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,875
• Closing costs: $5,745
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $191,500 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,500 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $191,500 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $191,500 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $191,500 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $191,500 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,500 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $191,500 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,500 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $191,500 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $191,500 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $191,500 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $224,900 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Priced to sell manufactured home and mobile home sitting on 20 acres tucked in the mountains of Twin Oaks! Property features include a stainless stove, ceiling fans, laundry room, water softener system, shared well, with the roof being installed approximately 9 years ago. Expand your living space and relax on the extended covered porch with breathtaking mountain and valley views! Detached over-sized shop has power and water at the exterior, perfect for storing vehicles, ATVs, tools and more. Extra storage space with three sheds, all with electricity, one can be used as a bonus room, equipped with a ceiling fan. Great opportunity to own two structures on one parcel in a private gated community. Located just off of the paved road for easy travels. Cash offers preferred. Call today for more information!

18. 2026-02-17
    listed $215,000 Active
19. 2004-02-02
    soldstatus $450,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,788 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,788 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,727
• − Property taxes: −$1,788
• − Insurance: −$958
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$5,571
• Taxable loss: −$6,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,550
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Caliente

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,115

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Current HPI: 353.7648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $224,900 TAAR
• 2026-02-17 Listed $215,000 GEMLS
• 2004-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,788 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.