11790 New Halls Ferry Rd · Florissant, MO 63033

$189,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1967 8,908 sqft lot Est $216k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch nested in Seven Hills subdivision. Step inside to a light-filled living room showcasing recessed lighting, large picture windows, and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring that flows throughout the main level. The updated kitchen and adjoining dining area feature stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and an elegant chandelier perfect for both daily living and entertaining guests. The primary suite offers a private retreat with its own full bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms and a full hall bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. A full unfinished basement offers abundant storage and endless po

Key facts

• Recessed lighting
• Updated kitchen
• 8,908 sq ft lot

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED LIVING ROOM
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOWS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,410 (per public records); Lot size approximately 0.2045 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Additional off-street parking; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Ameren electric; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Private ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Combination/other foundation; House structure; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free-standing gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with 8-ft+ poured concrete
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($418/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $190k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,511 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11962 Nero Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	1mo	$220,000	$153	88
4451 Rhine Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+1%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	83
4394 Satiris Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	74
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,271 (-10%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	74
4428 Papal Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-6%)	6mo	$129,900	$99	73
4443 Remus Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,354 (-4%)	3mo	$224,900	$166	70
2325 Grassland Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+8%)	2mo	$239,000	$157	65
11678 Galba Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-8%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	62
11636 Macrinus Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (+8%)	1mo	$229,900	$151	59
11565 Mehl Ave	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (-10%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	56
4471 Rhine Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (+8%)	7mo	$245,000	$161	55
4461 Rhine Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,607 (+14%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $113,331
• Equity at exit: $170,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $351,211
• Equity at exit: $368,157

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,495/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $88	+0% $35	+5% $-19	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-31	+0% $35	+5% $101	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $83	base $35	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	18d	1	0.61mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	0.66mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	0.72mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	0.86mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	24d	1	0.99mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	8d	1	1.05mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	24d	1	1.10mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.11mi
3582 Pershall Rd Unit 3631 Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	44d	1	1.23mi
3585 Pershall Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,400	$1.01	44d	1	1.27mi
3585 Pershall Rd Unit Moor Ferguson, MO	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	1.27mi
3585 Pershall Rd Unit Savana Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.5	1518	$1,375	$0.91	44d	1	1.27mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.30mi
1095 Ozment Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	984	$1,461	$1.48	24d	1	1.31mi
1050 Ozment Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	984	$1,525	$1.55	44d	1	1.37mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	24d	1	1.39mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.44mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	1.44mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,500 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,500 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $189,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$2,495
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$2,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$669
• After-tax cash flow: $1,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+57.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $189,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $225,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $162,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-17 Listed $180,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Coming Soon $180,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,495 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.