17526 Shirewood Way · Connerton, FL 34638

$393,500

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · Land · 26 Days on market

Built 2025 4,792 sqft lot $161/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW HOME - This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner's suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built. Welcome to Angeline, a new 6,200+ acre master-planned community in Land O' Lakes, FL, perfect for first-time homebuyers and families at every stage in life. Endless days basking in the sun and a wealth of outdoor adventures await for residents living at Angeline, thanks to 3,600 acres of green space and up to

Key facts

• Green space
• Onsite trails
• Paved pathways

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• GREEN SPACE
• ONSITE TRAILS
• COMMUNITY FARM
• PAVED PATHWAYS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $322,191 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-83,507
• Equity at exit: $58,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-122,357
• Equity at exit: $34,023

Cash invested: $110,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,064
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,830/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,427

Max offer price $364,813

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,375
• Closing costs: $11,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17761 Pleasantview Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,600	$1.39	20d	1	0.36mi
10583 Gentle Rain Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$3,450	$1.41	1d	1	0.42mi
10583 Gentle Rain Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$3,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.42mi
17786 Acorn Drop Rd Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,995	$1.33	24d	1	0.51mi
18236 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2023	$2,395	$1.18	14d	1	0.71mi
10120 Perthshire Cir Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1872	$1,200	$0.64	24d	1	1.37mi
18846 Quarry Badger Rd Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$3,000	$1.62	24d	1	1.40mi
18937 Quarry Badger Rd Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$3,450	$1.49	24d	1	1.47mi
9543 Maxson Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,250	$1.21	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2025-08-15
   price $385,850
2. 2025-08-14
   price $389,900
3. 2025-08-08
   price $399,900
4. 2025-08-07
   price $390,000
5. 2025-06-21
   status Pending
6. 2025-06-18
   price $389,600
7. 2025-06-13
   price $393,500
8. 2025-06-13
   price $393,500
9. 2025-06-05
   status Active
10. 2025-06-05
    price $411,250
11. 2025-06-05
    price $411,250
12. 2025-05-19
    soldstatus $1,675,800
13. 2025-03-24
    status Pending
14. 2025-03-20
    price $409,900
15. 2025-03-20
    price $409,900
16. 2025-03-14
    listed $413,400 Active
17. 2025-02-25
    soldstatus $7,840,900
18. 2024-12-30
    soldstatus $18,969,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,830 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,830 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,042
• − Property taxes: −$3,830
• − Insurance: −$1,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,093
• − Management: −$3,093
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$11,447
• Taxable loss: −$8,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,098
• After-tax cash flow: $149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $385,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $390,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Pending — HCAR
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $389,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $393,500 HCAR
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $393,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Relisted — HCAR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $411,250 HCAR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $411,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,675,800 Public Records
• 2025-03-24 Pending — HCAR
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $409,900 HCAR
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $409,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Listed $413,400 HCAR
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $7,840,900 Public Records
• 2024-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,969,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1146.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,830 · +1146.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.