86 Nelson St · Auburn, NY 13021

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1890 9,240 sqft lot Est $164k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in condition for this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home. Beautiful hardwood floors throughout. A kitchen you have to see, modern and spacious. Replacement windows. Deep lot. New sewer pipe to the house. Priced to sell. Easy to show. Vacant on lock box, PLEASE PHONE FIRST.

Key facts

• Waterfront dining
• 9,240 sq ft lot
• Built 1890

Tags

• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• FULL WALKOUT BASEMENT
• HUGE FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• ORIGINAL WOOD DETAILS
• EASY WALKING DISTANCE
• WATERFRONT DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in NY, #4,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Auburn City School District (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #558 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $150k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 N Fulton St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,568 (-4%)	6mo	$162,500	$104	81
69 Lansing St	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,608 (-2%)	7mo	$204,000	$127	76
18 Paul St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,516 (-7%)	4mo	$65,000	$43	71
23 Chase St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,652 (+1%)	2mo	$165,000	$100	70
34 Liberty St	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (-11%)	3mo	$135,000	$92	69
130 North St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,789 (+9%)	2mo	$198,000	$111	69
78 Standart Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-12%)	1mo	$165,000	$114	65
76 Grant Ave	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,744 (+6%)	3mo	$173,000	$99	61
75 Van Anden St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-7%)	2mo	$50,000	$33	54
21 Union St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,506 (-8%)	6mo	$169,950	$113	50
42 Seminary St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,396 (-15%)	3mo	$63,000	$45	45
44 Capitol St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-8%)	7mo	$79,900	$53	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,541
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,961
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13021

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,598/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $289	+0% $247	+5% $204	+10% $162
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $181	+0% $247	+5% $312	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $285	base $247	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Sheridan St Auburn, NY	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,995	$1.12	44d	1	0.79mi
173 E Genesee St Unit 171 Auburn, NY	3.0	1.5	2000	$2,000	$1.00	44d	1	0.99mi
78 Chedell Pl Auburn, NY	2.0	1.0	2096	$1,100	$0.52	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $149,900 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on marketlisting id $149,900 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-04-07
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-17
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2026-03-06
    price $149,900
15. 2026-02-04
    price $155,000
16. 2025-11-24
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2010-10-14
    soldstatus $80,560
18. 2010-10-13
    soldstatus $80,560 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Move in condition for this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home. Beautiful hardwood floors throughout. A kitchen you have to see, modern and spacious. Replacement windows. Deep lot. New sewer pipe to the house. Priced to sell. Easy to show. Vacant on lock box, PLEASE PHONE FIRST.

19. 2010-07-27
    listed $84,000 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Move in condition for this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home. Beautiful hardwood floors throughout. A kitchen you have to see, modern and spacious. Replacement windows. Deep lot. New sewer pipe to the house. Priced to sell. Easy to show. Vacant on lock box, PLEASE PHONE FIRST.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,598
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,594
• − Management: −$1,594
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn City School District
• NCES district ID: 3603480
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,567
• Composite: 29.71/100
• National rank: #6452
• State rank: #558 of 590 in NY

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #4814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, NY
• County: Cayuga County · 37,247 people
• City population: 37,247
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• Population (ZIP): 37,247
• Household income: $60,712
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1449.0

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.53%
• Current HPI: 338.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+78.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $155,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $160,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,560 Public Records
• 2010-10-13 Sold (MLS) $80,560 CNYIS
• 2010-07-27 Listed $84,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,598 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.