541 Patrick Farms Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$307,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 207 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $171/sqft · at area comps Est $308k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this NEW CONSTRUCTION home from a LOCAL BUILDER. This is a 4/2 split plan with an open feel. This home has a large family room with high ceilings that is open to the kitchen and eating area. The kitchen has a large island, pantry, custom built cabinets(no pre fab cabinets), and stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom has vaulted ceiling and has a door that leads into the master bath. The master bath has double vanities, seperate shower, and a large walk in closet with direct access to the laundry room. This home also has a nice covered porch to enjoy the back yard. The builder is offering concessions to be used for the buyers choice of an interest rate buy down, fence, gutters, etc.

Key facts

• Large family room
• New construction
• Large island

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LARGE ISLAND
• CUSTOM BUILT CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pearl Lower Elementary School (782 students, 100% FRL); Pearl Junior High School (math 46% / reading 40%, grade D-, #47 of 179 statewide, top 26%, 1,001 students, 100% FRL); Pearl High School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade D, #28 of 197 statewide, top 14%, 1,262 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,465/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,546 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,600
• List price: $307,000
• Delta: -0.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
550 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+1%)	2mo	$299,999	$166	96
535 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,819 (+1%)	2mo	$309,300	$170	95
554 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,860 (+3%)	2mo	$305,999	$165	92
564 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	1,818 (+1%)	2mo	$309,900	$170	92
522 Patrick Farms Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-2%)	3mo	$299,900	$170	88
552 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+8%)	1mo	$314,999	$162	84
921 Clubhouse Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,766 (-2%)	2mo	$284,500	$161	79
515 Westfield Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+1%)	0mo	$325,000	$180	77
572 Patrick Farms Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,819 (+1%)	2mo	$309,900	$170	73
543 Westfield Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,006 (+11%)	2mo	$359,000	$179	56
716 Clubhouse Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$169	52
213 Clubview Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-5%)	3mo	$305,000	$179	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,295
• Equity at exit: $45,775

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,233
• Equity at exit: $26,544

Cash invested: $85,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.7 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $308,250 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 434
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,605/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,707

Max offer price $279,378

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-85	+0% $-191	+5% $-297	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-386	-5% $-288	+0% $-191	+5% $-94	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-113	base $-191	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,750
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
548 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	109d	1	0.03mi
538 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	0d	1	0.03mi
573 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1910	$2,700	$1.41	109d	1	0.04mi
563 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,387	$1.32	109d	1	0.38mi
571 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,387	$1.32	109d	1	0.45mi
624 Oak Ridge Way Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	0d	1	1.37mi
121 Cherry Laurel Cir Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,077	$1.50	2d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $307,000 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $307,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $307,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $307,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $307,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $307,000 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $307,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $307,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $307,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $307,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $307,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $307,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $307,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $307,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $307,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $307,000 Active 187 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $307,000 Active 184 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $307,000 Active 183 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $307,000 Active 182 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $307,000 Active 181 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $307,000 Active 180 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $307,000 Active 178 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $307,000 Active 177 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $307,000 Active 176 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $307,000 Active 175 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $307,000 Active 174 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $307,000 Active 173 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $307,000 Active 172 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $307,000 Active 171 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $307,000 Active 170 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $307,000 Active 169 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $307,000 Active 168 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $307,000 Active 167 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $307,000 Active 166 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $307,000 Active 165 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $307,000 Active 164 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $307,000 Active 163 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $307,000 Active 162 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $307,000 Active 161 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $307,000 Active 160 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $307,000 Active 159 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $307,000 Active 158 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $307,000 Active 157 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $307,000 Active 156 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $307,000 Active 153 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $307,000 Active 151 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $307,000 Active 149 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $307,000 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $307,000 Active 146 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $307,000 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,197
• − Property taxes: −$4,605
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$7,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout, custom built cabinets, and modern amenities. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pearl Upper School F MS #92/375 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Pearl Junior High School D- MS #47/179 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Pearl High School D MS #28/197 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 164,317 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $307,000 MLSU