3208 Pebble Bend Dr · Lakeland, FL 33810

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1986 4,909 sqft lot $239/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Auction Property. Welcome to this charming 2/2 manufactured home perfectly situated on a shady corner lot in the desirable Highland Fairways gated community. Designed with an open floor plan, the home offers a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious family room is filled with natural light from large bay windows, and a separate living and dining combination provides additional flexibility for hosting guests or enjoying quiet meals at home. The primary suite is a private retreat featuring an en-suite bath and a walk-in closet for ample storage. Outside is an attached carport and storage shed offering extra space for tools, hobbies, or golf g

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attached carport
• Clubhouse

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $239.50; HOA amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, golf course, pool, recreation facilities, and tennis courts; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Mature landscaping; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $100k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.75%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $11,454
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $45,037
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,226/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$239
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3211 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	938	$1,395	$1.49	23d	1	0.35mi
3122 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1097	$1,450	$1.32	3d	1	0.38mi
1846 Masters Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$1,800	$1.21	21d	1	0.42mi
1906 Griffin Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1148	$2,049	$1.78	3d	11	0.42mi
3852 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1861	$1,950	$1.05	10d	1	0.57mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	14d	1	0.81mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	13d	1	0.89mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	3d	1	0.92mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	2d	1	0.93mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	0.96mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	23d	1	1.06mi
3205 J and J Manor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	3d	1	1.16mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	13d	2	1.27mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	23d	1	1.27mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	2d	24	1.28mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	1.37mi
1211 Robert King High Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,625	$1.55	23d	1	1.40mi
2340 Shasta St Lakeland, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2098	$2,185	$1.04	3d	3	1.46mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	21d	8	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $239 · $2,868/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $99,900
3. 2026-03-31
   price $116,100
4. 2026-03-27
   price $129,000
5. 2026-03-16
   price $134,100
6. 2026-02-20
   price $141,550
7. 2026-01-16
   listed $149,000 Active
8. 2024-07-09
   price $150,000
9. 2024-07-02
   price $190,000
10. 2024-05-11
    price $210,000
11. 2024-03-22
    listed $225,000 Active
12. 2016-06-24
    historical
13. 2016-04-14
    price $94,000
14. 2016-03-19
    status Active
15. 2016-03-16
    historical
16. 2016-03-12
    price $99,900
17. 2016-02-17
    price $105,000
18. 2016-02-01
    price $110,000
19. 2016-01-28
    listed $118,000 Active
20. 2012-06-27
    soldstatus $49,000
21. 2012-03-01
    listed $55,000
22. 2003-06-05
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 1996-03-28
    soldstatus $51,000
24. 1995-12-14
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,226 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,226 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,226
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − HOA: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$987
• After-tax cash flow: $4,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+63.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $116,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $134,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $141,550 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-22 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-14 Price Changed $94,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-12 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-17 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-01 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-28 Listed $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-27 Sold (MLS) $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-01 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,226 · +1061.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.