410 2nd St · Carlisle, KY 40311

$168,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1972 0.29 ac lot Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 1 bath home in downtown Carlisle. Hardwood and tile floors. Central HVAC. 1 car carport. Some recent updates. Sold as-is where is. Buyer to verify all aspects of this entire home and this entire listing.

Key facts

• New hvac system
• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1972

Tags

• RECENT BATHROOM REMODEL
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• WALKING DISTANCE TO MAIN ST
• LOW TRAFFIC DEAD END ST

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Carlisle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Nicholas County Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 664 students, 71% FRL); Nicholas County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 455 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $168k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $93,993 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.64%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,336
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 W 2nd St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-5%)	8mo	$160,000	$167	76
101 Emmert Dr	0.34mi	2/1.5	912 (-10%)	15mo	$129,900	$142	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $74,834
• Equity at exit: $151,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $233,248
• Equity at exit: $326,387

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $122,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-213	+0% $-260	+5% $-308	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-297	+0% $-260	+5% $-223	+10% $-186
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-218	base $-260	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   price $168,000
3. 2026-03-02
   status Active
4. 2026-02-28
   historical
5. 2025-12-29
   price $172,000
6. 2025-11-24
   listed $178,000 Active
7. 2015-11-03
   soldstatus $65,000 Sold 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   2 bedroom 1 bath home in downtown Carlisle. Hardwood and tile floors. Central HVAC. 1 car carport. Some recent updates. Sold as-is where is. Buyer to verify all aspects of this entire home and this entire listing.

8. 2015-09-14
   status Pending 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   2 bedroom 1 bath home in downtown Carlisle. Hardwood and tile floors. Central HVAC. 1 car carport. Some recent updates. Sold as-is where is. Buyer to verify all aspects of this entire home and this entire listing.

9. 2015-08-26
   listed $75,000 Active 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   2 bedroom 1 bath home in downtown Carlisle. Hardwood and tile floors. Central HVAC. 1 car carport. Some recent updates. Sold as-is where is. Buyer to verify all aspects of this entire home and this entire listing.

10. 2007-05-31
    soldstatus $57,000
11. 2006-12-16
    historical
12. 2006-07-15
    listed $40,900
13. 2006-06-05
    soldstatus $41,000
14. 2002-05-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$822/yr (+$69/mo · 132.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$902
• − Management: −$902
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$6,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,509
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlisle, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+236.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $168,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $172,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $178,000 ImagineMLS
• 2015-11-03 Sold (MLS) $65,000 ImagineMLS
• 2015-09-14 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2015-08-26 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2007-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-16 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2006-07-15 Listed $40,900 ImagineMLS
• 2006-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.