3431 S Pacific Hwy Spc 19 · Medford, OR 97501

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Land public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Clean & comfortable approx. 840 Sq Ft 2 bed 1 bath w/ front kitchen & dining in 55+ park. Rubberized overlay roof w/ gutters & downspouts, vinyl lap siding & vinyl frame dual glaze windows. High quality Trane Heat Pump new in 2022 for efficient & comfortable central heat & air. Covered parking, storage shed w/ power, spacious awning covered deck w/ ramp, & charming side yards w/ bricked seating area. Spacious center living room w/ large windows. Kitchen features refrigerator, range & dishwasher plus built in china cabinet, work desk & stainless kitchen sink w/ sprayer faucet. Dining area in kitchen tucked into a charming bay window. Com

Key facts

• Bricked seating area
• Trane heat pump
• Parking

Tags

• RUBBERIZED OVERLAY ROOF
• TRANE HEAT PUMP
• SPACIOUS AWNING COVERED DECK
• BRICKED SEATING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $890 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 78% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,415 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.90%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $44,647
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $108,668
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $194/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $890

Break-even live

Break-even rent $518

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Northridge Ter Medford, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,600	$1.68	21d	1	0.62mi
204 Cheryl Ln Unit J Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,350	$1.34	43d	1	1.02mi
310 Independence Cir Apt D Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	13d	1	1.26mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	21d	1	1.29mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	13d	1	1.29mi
1001 Olympic Ave Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	43d	1	1.35mi
3007 Juanipero Way Unit 3007 Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	988	$1,595	$1.61	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-10-10
   status Pending
2. 2024-07-10
   status Pending
3. 2024-05-23
   listed $69,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$481/yr (+$40/mo · 248.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$194
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $10,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,431
• After-tax cash flow: $8,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2024-07-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2024-05-23 Listed $69,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $194 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.