4617 Cottonwood Dr · Beacon Square, FL 34652

$114,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1969 5,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY! TURNKEY! Corner lot. tenant! Great Cash flowing property. Great investment tenant in place, call for details . DO. NOT. DISTURB. TENANT. Great investment property.

Key facts

• Long term tenant
• Investment property
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CASH FLOWING PROPERTY
• LONG TERM TENANT
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated; Zoned R1MH

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One story; Northwest-facing
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area about 1,052 square feet
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Lot about 0.13 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.7% in Beacon Square — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mittye P. Locke Elementary School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 491 students, 89% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $115k implies a 857% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.33%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,087
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $18,255
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $715/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $390	+0% $357	+5% $325	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $304	+0% $357	+5% $411	+10% $464
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $387	base $357	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	18d	1	0.35mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	16d	1	0.36mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	5d	1	0.36mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.65mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.66mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	26d	1	0.68mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.68mi
4722 Kennedy Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	504	$850	$1.69	26d	1	0.71mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,085	$1.47	0d	1	0.81mi
5154 Turquoise Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,250	$1.77	6d	1	0.85mi
5333 Pasadena Dr Unit 5333 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	19d	1	0.85mi
4901 Onyx Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	672	$1,295	$1.93	26d	1	0.88mi
4944 Elkner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	23d	1	0.99mi
4922 Filner St New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,000	$1.85	23d	1	1.00mi
4948 Getner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	26d	1	1.04mi
5149 Tangelo Dr Apt B New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	350	$1,195	$3.41	26d	1	1.05mi
5844 Sunshine Park Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	4d	1	1.20mi
5543 Gulf Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $115,900
15. 2026-04-20
    price $117,900
16. 2026-03-27
    status Active
17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2026-01-20
    price $118,900
19. 2025-12-13
    price $119,900
20. 2025-12-02
    price $89,900
21. 2025-11-25
    price $91,500
22. 2025-11-22
    price $91,900
23. 2025-11-05
    price $92,900
24. 2025-11-03
    price $93,900
25. 2025-10-29
    status Active
26. 2025-09-30
    historical
27. 2025-09-09
    price $94,900
28. 2025-08-29
    price $95,900
29. 2025-08-21
    price $96,900
30. 2025-08-14
    price $97,900
31. 2025-07-24
    price $98,900
32. 2025-07-09
    listed $105,000 Active
33. 2025-03-25
    price $107,900
34. 2025-02-18
    price $108,900
35. 2025-01-27
    price $109,900
36. 2024-12-12
    price $111,900
37. 2024-12-05
    price $112,900
38. 2024-11-19
    price $114,900
39. 2024-11-09
    listed $119,000 Active
40. 2022-11-22
    historical
41. 2022-09-16
    listed $89,900 Active
42. 2021-05-29
    price $64,900
43. 2021-04-29
    listed $69,900 Active
44. 2017-02-06
    historical
45. 2017-02-06
    price $42,500
46. 2016-12-26
    price $34,900
47. 2016-06-07
    listed $42,000 Active
48. 1998-08-12
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $715 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$715
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $2,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $3,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Beacon Square

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beacon Square, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+865.8% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $115,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $117,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $118,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $91,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $91,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $92,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $93,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $95,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $96,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $97,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $98,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $107,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $108,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $111,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $112,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-09 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-29 Price Changed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-29 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Price Changed $42,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-26 Price Changed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-07 Listed $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $715 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.