🏷️ Likely Rental
801-803 Winston Dr · Fairborn, OH
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $713 – $1,323
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.7/10.0
- Rent growth +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$179,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
Discover this charming brick duplex located just minutes from downtown Fairborn, offering easy access to restaurants, shopping, and local amenities. Each unit features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, providing a practical and comfortable layout for residents. Whether you're looking to invest or live in one side while renting the other, this well-situated property offers excellent potential in a convenient location. Unit 801 - Tenant signed a 1 year lease that is good through 5/31/2026. Currently paying $725 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey. Unit 803 - Tenant is month to month, currently paying $800 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey.
Key facts
- Fenced yard
- Brick duplex
- New break panel
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $179k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $886 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $443/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
- Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fairborn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#374 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
- Fairborn City (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #520 of 656 in OH (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,631/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1472% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $145k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.47% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.23%
- Cash-on-cash
- 21.21%
- DSCR
- 1.94
- GRM
- 5.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $357,357
- Comps found
- 2
Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 721 Winston Dr #719 | 0.01mi | 6/2.0 | 1,911 (0%) | 10mo | $145,000 | $76 | 91 |
| 711 N Central Ave | 0.19mi | 5/3.0 (-1) | 1,764 (-8%) | 1mo | $329,000 | $187 | 68 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 5.75% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 16.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.70×
- Total profit
- $34,916
- Equity at exit
- $26,689
- IRR
- 27.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.71×
- Total profit
- $135,591
- Equity at exit
- $15,477
Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 73 Landlord-Friendly
- State Ohio
- 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 45324
- Rents YoY
- 5.8%
- Active inventory
- 180
- Price-to-rent
- 11.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,631 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$939
- Tax from tax record
- −$179 /mo · $2,151/yr
- Insurance
- −$75
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$553
- Net cashflow
- $886
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 3 | 1 | $2,632 |
| #1 | 3 | 1 | $1,316 |
| #2 | 3 | 1 | $1,316 |
| Total (2 units) | $2,631 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $44,750
- Closing costs
- $5,370
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 8 events
-
2026-03-30status Pending
-
2026-03-22status Active
-
2026-03-15status Pending
-
2026-03-11$179,000 Active
-
2026-01-18price $179,000
-
2025-08-15soldstatus $145,000 Closed 661-char remark
Show marketing remark (661 chars)
Discover this charming brick duplex located just minutes from downtown Fairborn, offering easy access to restaurants, shopping, and local amenities. Each unit features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, providing a practical and comfortable layout for residents. Whether you're looking to invest or live in one side while renting the other, this well-situated property offers excellent potential in a convenient location. Unit 801 - Tenant signed a 1 year lease that is good through 5/31/2026. Currently paying $725 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey. Unit 803 - Tenant is month to month, currently paying $800 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey.
-
2025-07-03status Pending 661-char remark
Show marketing remark (661 chars)
Discover this charming brick duplex located just minutes from downtown Fairborn, offering easy access to restaurants, shopping, and local amenities. Each unit features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, providing a practical and comfortable layout for residents. Whether you're looking to invest or live in one side while renting the other, this well-situated property offers excellent potential in a convenient location. Unit 801 - Tenant signed a 1 year lease that is good through 5/31/2026. Currently paying $725 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey. Unit 803 - Tenant is month to month, currently paying $800 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey.
-
2025-06-06$179,900 Active 661-char remark
Show marketing remark (661 chars)
Discover this charming brick duplex located just minutes from downtown Fairborn, offering easy access to restaurants, shopping, and local amenities. Each unit features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, providing a practical and comfortable layout for residents. Whether you're looking to invest or live in one side while renting the other, this well-situated property offers excellent potential in a convenient location. Unit 801 - Tenant signed a 1 year lease that is good through 5/31/2026. Currently paying $725 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey. Unit 803 - Tenant is month to month, currently paying $800 per month. Stove and refrigerator to convey.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $2,151 · $179/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,472 · $206/mo
- Expected delta
- +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 14.9%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,572
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,027
- − Property taxes
- −$2,151
- − Insurance
- −$895
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,526
- − Management
- −$2,526
- − Depreciation
- −$5,207
- Taxable income
- $8,241
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,978
- After-tax cash flow
- $8,654/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Fairborn City
- NCES district ID
- 3904396
- Math proficiency
- 36% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 49% ▼ -10.00%
- Median HH income
- $45,091
- Composite
- 36.05/100
- National rank
- #4772
- State rank
- #520 of 656 in OH
Livability — Fairborn
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #374
- US rank
- #6101
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Fairborn, OH
- County
- Greene County · 132,120 people
- City population
- 41,194
- Metro
- Dayton-Kettering, OH
- Population (ZIP)
- 41,194
- Household income
- $64,979
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1472.0
Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 170,301 people
- By 2030
- 171,840 · +0.9%
- By 2040
- 171,408 · +0.7%
- By 2050
- 167,806 · -1.5%
- By 2075
- 154,430 · -9.3%
- By 2100
- 138,669 · -18.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (78%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 78% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Greene
- 2024 margin
- R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.3% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -157.48%
- Current HPI
- 228.0801
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 5.75%
- Metro
- Dayton-Kettering, OH
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- F500 in state
- 48
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 3 | $145B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $49B |
|
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| Financial Services | 3 | $24B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $93B |
|
||
| Aerospace / Defense | 2 | $47B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $33B |
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Price history
-0.5% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-30 Pending — Dayton MLS
- 2026-03-22 Relisted — Dayton MLS
- 2026-03-15 Pending — Dayton MLS
- 2026-03-11 Listed $179,000 Dayton MLS
- 2026-01-18 Price Changed $179,000 Dayton MLS
- 2025-08-15 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Dayton MLS
- 2025-07-03 Pending — Dayton MLS
- 2025-06-06 Listed $179,900 Dayton MLS
Property tax history
+0.6%/yrLatest (2025): $2,151 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…