9499 Brayton Dr #245 · Anchorage, AK 99507

$86,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 131 Days on market

Built 2024 Est $80k · 7% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home with new floors, walls, windows, doors, appliances, furnace and hot water heater, toilets and shower, new roof and deck, large storage, shed or garage, nice new exterior paint. New cabinets and countertertops, one of the nicest trailer parks of the city. close to great schools, malls, restaurants, convenient stores. Space rent is $660 monthly, includes the space, water and sewer. Property passed all the inspections from the municipality of Anchorage, gas, plumbing and electrical. Located at one of the best trailer parks of the state.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2024
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 335 students, 80% FRL); Hanshew Middle School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #27 of 36 statewide, top 74%, 691 students, 42% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $75,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.60%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,400
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9499 Brayton Dr #21	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$92,900	$77	89
9499 Brayton Dr #292	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	16mo	$87,000	$73	76
9499 Brayton Dr #268	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+1%)	22mo	$67,500	$56	72
9499 Brayton Dr #213	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,200 (0%)	20mo	$55,000	$46	68
9499 Brayton Dr #8	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,159 (-3%)	18mo	$65,000	$56	63
9599 Brayton Dr #500	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-8%)	14mo	$74,000	$67	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $79,736
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.00×
• Total profit: $216,622
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99507

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $1,336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9905 William Jones Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1171	$2,595	$2.22	13d	10	0.46mi
2400 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	21d	1	0.46mi
2721 E 84th Ave Unit A Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,900	$2.11	23d	1	0.93mi
8124 Marsha Loop Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,700	$1.82	43d	1	1.08mi
1130 E 112th Ave Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	43d	1	1.14mi
701 E 78th Ave Unit 705 Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	13d	1	1.25mi
7330 Meadow St Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,399	$2.33	23d	1	1.30mi
7310 Chugach Meadows Loop Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1028	$2,399	$2.33	21d	1	1.32mi
7308 Chugach Meadows Loop Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.5	1240	$2,550	$2.06	13d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-13
   price $86,000
3. 2025-10-11
   price $90,000
4. 2025-08-22
   listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,346
• − Management: −$2,346
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $15,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,743
• After-tax cash flow: $12,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 37,301
• Household income: $107,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 6% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.29%
• Current HPI: 273.1227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $86,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $90,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $95,000 AKMLS