440 Western Pines Rd · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · Land · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 0.30 ac lot $240/sqft · 8% above area Est $223k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath new construction home is currently under construction, blending modern architecture with livable simplicity on a spacious 0.30-acre lot with no HOA in a central, convenient location. Inside, vaulted ceilings and clerestory windows create an immediate sense of openness, allowing natural light to flood the living space throughout the day. The result is a bright, airy interior that feels larger than its footprint and effortlessly inviting. Clean lines, smart flow, and intentional design make every square foot count. Because the home is still under construction, there may be early opportunities for buyers to select certain finishes and or color options if secured soon enough in the build process — a great advantage to truly make this home your own. With an estimated April completion date, this home offers modern construction, efficiency, and peace of mind. All paired with no HOA restrictions, a generous lot, and a design that prioritizes light, space, and livability, this property stands out as a smart, stylish option for buyers seeking quality new construction without compromise.

Key facts

• New construction
• Natural light
• Spacious lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO HOA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CLERESTORY WINDOWS
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Meadow Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 710 students, 51% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,731 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,124
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: 7.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,967
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-53,397
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $219,176

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-60	+0% $-143	+5% $-226	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-219	+0% $-143	+5% $-67	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-82	base $-143	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Forest Hills Dr Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	25d	1	0.01mi
197 Millet Cir Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	15d	1	0.32mi
3318 Pine Forest Rd Cantonment, FL	2.0	2.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	25d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-01-14
    listed $239,900 Active 1144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath new construction home is currently under construction, blending modern architecture with livable simplicity on a spacious 0.30-acre lot with no HOA in a central, convenient location. Inside, vaulted ceilings and clerestory windows create an immediate sense of openness, allowing natural light to flood the living space throughout the day. The result is a bright, airy interior that feels larger than its footprint and effortlessly inviting. Clean lines, smart flow, and intentional design make every square foot count. Because the home is still under construction, there may be early opportunities for buyers to select certain finishes and or color options if secured soon enough in the build process — a great advantage to truly make this home your own.

17. 2026-01-14
    listed $239,900 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath new construction home is currently under construction, blending modern architecture with livable simplicity on a spacious 0.30-acre lot with no HOA in a central, convenient location. Inside, vaulted ceilings and clerestory windows create an immediate sense of openness, allowing natural light to flood the living space throughout the day. The result is a bright, airy interior that feels larger than its footprint and effortlessly inviting. Clean lines, smart flow, and intentional design make every square foot count. Because the home is still under construction, there may be early opportunities for buyers to select certain finishes and or color options if secured soon enough in the build process — a great advantage to truly make this home your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $-305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $239,900 NAMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $239,900 PARMLS